IGC confirms even tighter world grain supply in 2024/25
In its new Feb. 2025 edition, the International Grains Council (IGC) has once again underlined the already estimated tight world grain supply.
Global production is estimated at 2,301 million tons, another -4 million tons lower than in Jan.-25. Compared to the previous year, this year's result is -8 million tons lower. Global consumption is reduced by -1 million tons to 2,334 million tons compared to the previous month (previous year: 2,322 million tons). This means that ending stocks have fallen from 608 million tons last year to 576 million tons this year. In terms of figures, stocks are only sufficient for 90 days (2021/22: 99 days).
The global wheat balance for 202/25 also remains negative. Production of 797 million tons is offset by consumption of 806 million tons. In both cases, there are only minor changes compared to the previous year. However, ending stocks continue to fall from 285 to 264 million tons. This means that stocks are becoming even more critical.
The situation on the maize market is assessed as even tighter. The main reason for this is weaker harvest expectations in South America. Production in 2024/25 is estimated at 1,216 million tons (previous year: 1,231 million tons). The IGC estimates consumption at 1,238 million tons (previous year: 1,227 million tons). This means that final stocks have fallen from 297 million tons last year to 275 million tons this year. This corresponds to a supply figure of 22% final stocks to consumption compared to 25.6% in 2021/22.
The results for the remaining grain show production of 288 million tons, compared to consumption of 290 million tons. In both cases, slight increases compared to the previous year can be observed.
For the wheat forecasts for 2025/26, the IGC estimates slight increases in production, consumption and trade, but assumes a further decline in stocks. In the case of maize production, a larger area under cultivation is expected.
If the forecasts come true, a continued shortage in the global grain market is to be expected.
