IGC with 1st estimate of the world grain market 2025/26
The International Grains Council (IGC) has published its first estimate of the supply situation on the global grain market in 2025/26. According to this, global production is set to increase by +2.5% to 2,368 million tons (previous year: 2,306 million tons). Global consumption is forecast to reach 2,366 million tons (previous year: 2,336 million tons). This would once again make it necessary to reduce stocks in order to meet demand. The supply figure is calculated at 24.4% final stocks to consumption and is therefore below the average for 2012-14. Expectations of an improvement in the supply-demand ratio are therefore not being fulfilled for the time being.
The IGC estimates the global wheat harvest at 806.7 million tons, higher than the previous year's figure of 799 million tons. The main reason for the increase is the expectation of an EU harvest of 133 million tons compared to the previous year's figure of only 119 million tons. In contrast, the Russian harvest is expected to be even smaller at 80 million tons. A significantly smaller result of around 15 million tons (-3 million tons) is also expected in Kazakhstan. The Australian harvest will be 4 million tons smaller at 30.5 million tons.
Global wheat consumption is estimated at around 813 million tons, mainly due to higher demand for human consumption. This means that the wheat sector will have to expect a reduction in stocks, which will keep prices high.
The IGC estimates global maize production at 1,269 million tons, higher than the previous year's figure of 1,217 million tons. Larger harvests are forecast in Argentina, Brazil, the USA and, to a limited extent, in the EU. Global consumption is estimated to be 25 million tons higher than in the previous year at 1,263 million tons. A comparison of harvest and consumption volumes shows a slight increase in stocks.
The remaining grain volume (including rye, triticale, barley and oats) is estimated at 292 million tons for production and 291 million tons for consumption.
The supply estimate should be seen as an initial rough guide to future price trends.
