IGC makes further downward adjustment to world grain supply.
The International Grains Council (IGC) has once again revised the world grain supply downwards in its monthly issue for November 2020. Global production is estimated to be 2,311 million tons, down again on the previous month, while consumption is expected to rise to 2,332 million tons. The result is a reduction in stocks from 596 million tons last year to 576 million tons this year, or 24.7% of consumption; this figure is the lowest it has been for 10 years.
The IGC estimates global wheat production at a little changed 796 million tons. There were major harvest losses this year in the EU (-13 million tons) and in Russia (-10 million tons). This contrasts with increases of 25 million tons in Argentina, Australia, Canada, the USA, China, Kazakhstan and India. Consumption rises to 805 million tons. This means that stocks are expected to fall further to 263 million tons (previous year: 272 million tons). Excluding China, final stocks will be even lower at 121 million tons (previous year 132 million tons).
The IGC estimates global maize production at 1,225 million tons (previous year: 1,231 million tons). Consumption is expected to increase by more than 9 million tons year-on-year to 1,235 million tons. The IGC anticipates a reduction in stocks of around 10 million tons.
The remaining grain in the order of 290 million tons has risen slightly, but is largely balanced in terms of production and consumption.