Aug. 15, 2024: IGC reduces world grain harvest compared to previous month's estimate
In its latest August issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) estimates the world grain harvest for 2024/25 at only 2,315 million tons, 6 million tons less than in the previous month. Compared to the previous year, however, an increase of almost 16 million tons is expected. Global consumption is estimated at 2,321 million tons. The higher consumption for production will lead to a reduction in stocks to 580 million tons or 25% of final stocks compared to consumption. This is the lowest level since 2015/16. In the case of a grain balance sheet without China, the supply figure is only 13.9% final stocks (previous year: 14.6%) in relation to consumption.
The global wheat harvest for 2024/25 is reduced slightly to 799 million tons compared to the previous month, but remains just above the previous year's level. The decisive factors are the weaker harvests in the EU-27 with only 125 million tons, the USA with 53.9 million tons and Canada with 34.9 million tons; the higher results in Ukraine and Kazakhstan can only compensate to a limited extent.
Global use is estimated to be slightly higher at 802.6 million tons, mainly due to higher food consumption. A comparison of current production and consumption shows a deficit, which is offset by the reduction in stocks. The supply situation is therefore significantly lower than in the two previous years.
The IGC has revised the global maize harvest slightly upwards to 1,225.5 million tons on a monthly and annual basis. Lower production is expected in Ukraine (-1.2 million tons) and the EU-27 (-2 million tons) compared to the previous month's estimate. In contrast, the US maize harvest is expected to increase by +5.5 million tons. Compared to the previous year, maize production is expected to be slightly higher. Global consumption is estimated to be slightly higher than in the previous year at 1,229 million tons. A reduction in stocks is also expected in this sector.
At 290 million tons, production of the other types of grain will increase slightly, but consumption will be almost the same at around 289.5 million tons.
Comparison of world grain supply estimates:
| IGC on Aug 15, 24 | USDA on 12 Aug 2024 | |
| Wheat harvest (in million tons) | 799,1 | 798,3 |
| Wheat consumption (in million tons) | 802,6 | 804,0 |
| Maize harvest (in million tons) | 1.225,5 | 1.219,8 |
| Maize consumption (in million tons) | 1.229,0 | 1.218,2 |
| Total harvest (in million tons) | 2.314,9 | 2.302,6 |
| Total consumption (in million tons) | 2.320,8 | 2.310,1 |
| Final stock (in million tons) | 580,7 | 592,5 |
| Supply figure in % | 25.0 (previous year 25.3) | 25.6 (previous year 26.1) |
