IGC again cuts global grain supply 2024/25
In its latest Jan 25 issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) has once again lowered the global grain supply than in previous publications.
The global harvest is now estimated at around 2,305 million tons (previous year: 2,309 million tons). Consumption has risen to 2,335 million tons, which is higher than this year's production. As a result, inventories will be reduced to 573 million tons (previous year 604 million tons). At 24.5% of final stocks in relation to consumption, this is the lowest supply level in 12 years. Reserves are sufficient for 89 days compared to the previous high (2016/17) of 115 days.
If China, with around 50% of global reserves and zero export readiness, is excluded, the calculated reserves for the rest of the world are only sufficient for 49 days (2 years ago it was 57 days).
The IGC estimates wheat production in 2024/25 at 796 million tons, around 1 million tons higher than in the previous year. Consumption is forecast at around 805 million tons (previous year: 806 million tons). In this case, too, inventories are expected to fall to 265 million tons. The supply situation will remain correspondingly tight.
The IGC cuts global maize production to 1,219 million tons compared to the previous year's figure of 1,231 million tons. In contrast, consumption is expected to rise from the previous year's 1,226 million tons to 1,239 million tons. This will reduce final stocks by around 20 million tons to 272 million tons.
The remaining quantity of grain on the production side amounts to just under 290 million tons and reaches 292 million tons on the consumption side.
Even though prices on the stock exchanges have been rising and falling, prices have remained within a range of between € 220 and € 240 per tonne of wheat for over half a year and are therefore well above the medium-term averages. The forward prices for wheat indicate a sustained high level of between € 225 and € 235/t for the next 5 months.
At the producer level, payment prices have so far tended to increase, in particular due to the price increase for feed wheat.
