18 Jul.2024: IGC updates world grain estimate at slightly higher production/consumption level, but reduced supply situation
In its latest July 24 estimate, the International Grains Council (IGC) has increased global grain production by +0.3% to 2,321 million tons. Global consumption is expected to increase slightly less strongly to 2,324 million tons. Ending stocks are calculated at an increasing 586 million tons (previous month 582 million tons). However, the supply figure falls to 25.2% of final stocks to consumption. Excluding China, the decline is even more pronounced at 14.2%.
Compared to the previous year, the global grain supply in 2024/25 tends to be weaker in terms of the supply figure.
The IGC now estimates global wheat production at an increased 801 million tons or an increase of 1%. The increase is due to higher harvests in Canada, the USA and Kazakhstan. In contrast, the results for the EU have been revised downwards slightly. Wheat consumption is estimated to be +2 million tons higher at just under 802 million tons. As a result, stocks are down slightly, but still remain at a good average level.
The IGC now estimates global maize production at 1,225 million tons, only slightly higher than in the previous month. This also applies to consumption, which is in the region of 1,230 million tons. Accordingly, this results in a decreasing final stock of 277 million tons (previous month 281 million tons). The supply figure falls to 22.6% of final stocks to consumption, which is below the average of recent years.
Other grain is forecast to rise slightly to 295 million tons.
