USDA with latest data on global grain supply 2024/25
In its latest monthly report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated the global supply situation on the grain market. Total production remains -0.4% below the previous year, but consumption is up +1.4%. Inventories fell from 26.8% in the previous year to 24.9% of final stocks in relation to consumption. According to several years of market experience, this supply situation will result in an international wheat price level of between €220 and €240 per tonne.
The USDA has revised global wheat production slightly higher to 793 million tons, while consumption was reduced slightly to 802 million tons. However, at 259 million tons (previous year: 267.5 million tons), ending stocks are significantly lower than in the previous year; the previous 3-year average was considerably higher at 276 million tons.
Wheat prices on the leading stock exchanges reacted with price increases, which partially offset the previous reductions in the run-up to the USDA forecast.
The USDA has again revised global maize production downwards. Compared to the previous year, the result is now -1.3% lower. Consumption, on the other hand, has increased slightly. As a result, stocks have been reduced to 293 million tons compared to the previous year's figure of 317.5 million tons.
The already rising maize prices have also received an additional boost and are currently at around € 215/t on the Paris stock exchange; in December 2020 they were still quoted at € 205/t.
The rest of the grain market in the order of 280 million tons is largely balanced on the supply and demand side at +1.6 %.
