MARS with first yield estimate for 2025
The Agricultural Meteorological Institute of the EU Commission (MARS) has published an initial yield forecast based on the evaluation of climate data.
Water shortage is currently the biggest problem factor at EU level. Frost and excess water affected smaller areas. In some areas, there have been combined events that pose increased risks to harvests. So far, most of these events have not (yet) had an irreversible impact on yields.
Dry soils prevail in Romania and Bulgaria, particularly in south-western Romania and north-western Bulgaria. In Hungary, too, a significant precipitation deficit hindered the development of winter crops. In the southern regions of Romania, cold temperatures halted early crop development.
In northern Germany , the period from February 1 to March 15 was the driest since records began. Rapeseed and winter cereals therefore need more water to reach their potential.
A severe frost event was observed in eastern Germany and western Poland, where the sparse snow cover may have exposed crops to frost damage locally.
Dry soils in eastern Poland and the Czech Republic could become problematic when winter crops grow again and spring barley needs to be sown.
In southern and western Europe, there was excessive rainfall in some regions.
In southern Portugal and Spain, the rainfall that has persisted since January and is expected to continue is likely to hamper field work.
Similar conditions can be observed in north-eastern and mid-western Italy with localized waterlogging. Northern France recorded above-average rainfall, particularly in January, which affected the root system and left the plants in a similar condition to the previous year. The drier conditions at the beginning of March brought relief, but were unable to fully resolve the situation.
In Ukraine, the rainfall deficit affected the entire country; so far, the negative effects on the plants have been limited to the eastern regions, where the unfavorable start to the season continues.
In most parts of the EU, winter crops are in fairly good condition. Compared to the same period last year, there are fewer and generally smaller areas where crops are currently affected by unfavorable weather conditions. However, there are a number of problem areas for which the coming weather conditions will be decisive. Regions where crops have been irreversibly affected remain limited to parts of Romania and Bulgaria and (more severely) eastern Ukraine, Morocco and western Algeria.
Weather conditions were generally favorable for seedbed preparation, sowing of spring cereals and other field work. Crop yield forecasts at this early stage of the season are largely based on historical trends, resulting in figures at EU level that are above last year's poor results and above the five-year average.
