July-24: MARS updates yield estimates - results mostly below previous month
In its July edition, the EU Commission's Agrometeorological Institute (MARS) has revised its climate-based yield estimates downwards compared to the previous month. The weather conditions in the period between June 1 and July 13, 2024 show a rain deficit in most of eastern Europe and downright heat stress in some regions. In contrast, large parts of Western Europe will see rain surpluses.
The yield estimates are a weighted average from the various production regions, which may differ significantly in individual areas.
MARS has revised the average grain yields downwards by -2% compared to the previous month. There is no change compared to the 5-year average. The results for wheat remain unchanged, while barley yields are slightly positive under the influence of above-average spring barley. For rye and triticale, a yield reduction of -1 % is estimated compared to the previous month, but the figures are 2 % and 3 % higher respectively compared to the 5-year average. Grain maize, however, is estimated to be significantly weaker at -4 %.
Oilseed rape, sunflower and soybean yields are expected to be predominantly weaker at between -2% and -5%. Yields of root crops such as potatoes and sugar beet are only expected to be -1 % to -2 % lower.
Yields per hectare are forecast to vary greatly in the individual growing regions. Compared to the 5-year average, the high yield increases in Spain and Portugal of more than +20 % are striking. This is due in part to catastrophic harvests in previous years. The same applies to Bulgaria and Romania, with increases of around +10 % compared to the multi-year average.
In contrast, unfavorable weather conditions in France (-8%), the Netherlands (-7%), Belgium (-3%), Austria (-4%), the Czech Republic (-4%) and Italy (-4%) have led to significantly lower expectations for harvest results compared to the previous year.
For Germany, yield reductions of between -1% for wheat and -5% for winter barley are estimated. Rye and triticale harvests are expected to be slightly higher year-on-year. Potatoes (-6%) and sugar beet (-7%) are expected to see a sharp drop in yield compared to the previous year.
