Russia and Ukraine currently having a strong influence on price trends
Ukraine's 2024/25 harvests: decline in production and exports
According to the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) September estimate, Ukraine's grain harvest is expected to reach just under 56 million tons (previous year: 63 million tons). Smaller areas under cultivation and weaker yields per hectare have contributed significantly to this.
Wheat production is estimated at 22.3 million tons (previous year: 23 million tons). The maize harvest is expected to amount to 27.2 million tons (previous year: 32.5 million tons). The remaining grain production will fall to 6.2 million tons.
Grain exports are expected to be around 10 million tons lower than in the previous year, reaching only 41 million tons. This includes around 15 million tons of wheat and 24 million tons of maize. Exports are mainly made via the new Black Sea route within the territorial waters of the EU countries of Romania and Bulgaria.
In the meantime, the stocks accumulated as a result of the war have almost returned to pre-war levels. The export boom of the last two years has therefore declined significantly.
Sunflower production is expected to fall from 6.75 million tons last year to 5.23 million tons this year. Of this, 4.8 million tons (previous year: 6.2 million tons) will be exported.
The 2024 rapeseed harvest has fallen to 3.7 million tons (previous year: 4.7 million tons). In addition to a reduction in the area under cultivation, a low yield of just 27 dt/ha was the main reason for this. The majority of the harvest is exported, mainly to EU countries in need of imports.
Russia's grain harvests and exports fall significantly in 2024/25
At around 120 million tons or -10.6 %, the Russian grain harvest in 2024/25 is considerably lower than in previous years. The area under cultivation was reduced due to difficult sowing conditions. Yields per hectare suffered from drought to varying degrees from region to region. Unseasonable rainfall during the harvest period, which is coming to an end, further reduced the results.
The Russian wheat harvest fell from 91.5 million tons in the previous year to a provisional 83 million tons or -9.3% this year. Barley production will only reach 18.3 million tons and is -10 % below 2023/24. The largest decline of -18.7 % relates to maize production, which will only reach 13.5 million tons.
Total grain exports are expected to fall from last year's 68 million tons to 56 million tons. As the world's largest wheat exporter, the reduction in Russian wheat deliveries to 48 million tons or -13.6% is particularly noticeable on the world market. Exports of the other types of grain play a rather subordinate role.
In the oilseed sector, sunflower production fell by -6.5%. In contrast, around +7% more soybeans (7.3 million tons) were harvested. The rapeseed harvest was 20 % higher (5.1 million tons).
Until the onset of winter with icy transport and loading conditions, as much produce as possible will be traded from both countries for the time being.
