Sep.2024: USDA estimates less corn, more wheat compared to previous month
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has corrected the results from the previous month in its latest monthly estimate of the world grain supply. Global grain production is revised down to 2,299 million tons (previous month: 2,302.5 million tons). The USDA's estimate of global consumption remains unchanged at 2,313 million tons. This means that the global supply situation is once again considered to be somewhat tighter.
In a year-on-year comparison, the decline in the supply figure from last year's 26.1% to this year's 25.6% final stocks to consumption continues downwards.
On the production side, the global wheat supply is set back to around 797 million tons compared to the previous month. This is due to the low EU harvests, which are around -10 million tons lower than in the previous year. Significant production declines of -8.5 million tons occurred in Russia. Slightly lower harvests were also recorded in Ukraine. In contrast, the upcoming wheat harvests in Argentina and Australia are expected to deliver significantly better results compared to the previous year. However, this will not result in full compensation.
Global wheat consumption is expected to increase to around 805 million tons (previous year: 799 million tons). An increase in consumption is forecast for China and India as well as for many smaller countries. Year-on-year, stocks will fall from 265 to 257 million tons.
The USDA again estimates that global maize production will be lower at 1,218 5 million tons (previous year: 1,224.3 million tons). The main harvest declines are in Ukraine (-5 million tons), the USA (-4 million tons), Brazil (-5 million tons), Russia (-3 million tons) and the EU (-2.5 million tons), while harvests in South Africa (+3.3 million tons) and Mexico (+2.5 million tons) are on the rise
Global maize consumption rises slightly to 1,220 million tons. The Chinese increases of +6 million tons or +2% play the decisive role here. In the EU, however, volumes are declining. The maize balance sheet shows a decline in final stocks.
An increase in production is expected for the remaining types of grain, but this will be almost completely offset by the increase in consumption.
The Chicago Stock Exchange reacted with price increases for wheat and corn.
