USDA corrects world grain supply 2024/25 downwards again.
In its March 2025 issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated the world grain supply. Production (excluding rice) is now estimated to remain almost unchanged at the previous year's level of 2,288 million tons. According to the calculations, consumption will rise to 2,330 million tons.
The shortfall will be covered by reducing stocks, with the result that final stocks will fall to around 577 million tons (previous year: 614 million tons). The supply figure falls to 24.7% of closing stocks to consumption, the lowest level in 10 years.
As the closing stock is the same as the opening stock for the following year, the coming world harvest would have to be significantly better in order to improve the future supply situation. Just to reach the status quo, the 2025/26 harvest would have to increase by around 2 %.
The supply balance for wheat does not look quite so unfavorable. Global production is estimated at 797 million tons (previous year 791 million tons). This contrasts with rising consumption of 806.6 million tons. Inventories are set to fall to 260 million tons (previous year: 269 million tons). The ratio of stock reserves to consumption is around 32% (previous year 33.8%).
According to initial estimates based on the expanded wheat areas, a slight improvement in the global wheat harvest in 2025/26 is expected, assuming average yields. The spread ranges from further declines in Russia and Ukraine to rising expectations in the USA and the EU (see also initial FAO estimates).
In the case of the global maize market, production is expected to reach 1,214 million tons in 2024/25. This compares to 1,228 million tons in the previous year. This year's consumption is estimated to rise to 1,239 million tons (previous year: 1,219 million tons). In this case too, stocks will fall from 313 to 289 million tons. The supply figure is calculated at 23.3 % final stocks compared to 25.8 % consumption in the previous year.
For the coming year 2025/26, the US corn area is expected to expand due to the favorable corn-soybean price ratio according to an old market rule. The USA accounts for around a third of global maize production volumes. However, sowing has not yet taken place.
For the remaining grain market (rye, barley, triticale, oats), 281 million tons will be produced in 2024/25 compared to consumption of 284 million tons. This submarket is largely only of regional importance.
