Aug 2024: USDA cuts world grain supply 2024-25
In its latest Aug. 24 issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated the global grain harvest to be around 6 million tons lower than the previous month at 2,302 million tons. Global consumption is estimated at 2,310 million tons. As a result, inventories are expected to fall to 592 million tons, or just 25.6% of final stocks compared to the previous year. This is the lowest level since 2015/16.
The USDA has raised the world wheat harvest by around 2 million tons to 698 million tons compared to the previous month. The higher estimate is due to slightly better harvests in Ukraine, Australia and Kazakhstan, but is partially offset by lower results in the US and the EU-27. Global consumption is raised by around 4 million tons to 804 million tons. Accordingly, ending stocks fall to 256 million tons.
The global maize harvest is reduced by 5 million tons compared to the previous month to 1,220 million tons. The main reason for this is the lower EU harvest of 60.5 million tons (previous month: 64 million tons). The result for Russia was reduced by a small amount, while the maize harvest in the USA is classified as higher. Ending stocks are reduced by -1.5 million tons to 310 million tons.
The remaining grain harvest is +3.6% higher than the previous year at just under 285 million tons, but is offset by increased consumption.
The new USDA estimate confirms the multi-year trend of a tightening global supply situation - measured by year-end stocks in relation to consumption.
