USDA estimates world grain supply at lowest level in 10 years
In the latest Dec. 24 issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduces world grain production in 2024/25 by -0.2% to 2,292 million tons compared to the previous year. However, consumption is expected to increase by +1.4% to 2,325 million tons. This will reduce inventories by around 33 million tons or -5.4% to 581 million tons. The supply figure falls just below 25 % final stocks to consumption. This is the lowest supply situation for 10 years.
Global wheat production is estimated to be lower at around 793 million tons (previous month: 795 million tons). This is due to the reduced harvest estimates in the EU and the sum of many smaller producing countries. Consumption is expected to reach 802.5 million tons (previous year: 798 million tons). In this case, too, it is the sum of many small regions that will increase their consumption volumes. Wheat stocks have shrunk to just under 258 million tons compared to 267.5 million tons in the previous year. The low supply situation corresponds to the situation in 2016/17.
The USDA cuts global maize production by just under -1% to 1,218 million tons compared to the previous year. The largest losses occurred in Ukraine (-18%), Russia (-21%, EU-27 (-6%) and in the sum of many smaller producing countries. Consumption is expected to increase by +1.6% year-on-year to 1,238 million tons. Strong increases are forecast in China (+2%) and India (+3%). Ending stocks of maize will fall to 296 million tons (previous year: 316 million tons); this corresponds to the supply level in 2020/21.
The remaining grain production will rise to 281 million tons, but consumption will be even higher at 285 million tons. In this case, too, stocks will be reduced.
The Chicago Stock Exchange has reacted with rising prices. Prices in Paris will follow with a time lag.
