09.
11.24
09:32
Global supply situation estimated to be slightly tighter

USDA with revised world grain estimate

USDA also estimates world grain harvest 2024/25 slightly lower than in previous month

In its Nov. 24 issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) also comes to a lower estimate of the world grain supply compared to the previous month according to its own surveys. Production is reduced slightly to 2,294 million tons, while consumption is estimated to be higher at 2,317 million tons. As a result, the calculated stocks fall to 25.3% of final stocks in relation to consumption (previous year: 26.6%).

Calculations of the supply situation excluding China tend in the same direction.

Compared to the previous year, production remains almost unchanged; however, consumption is estimated to be +1.13% higher. The main reason for this is the increasing use of maize for animal feed and biofuel production.

The change in wheat production is mainly due to reductions in Argentina, Brazil and Russia as well as increases in the UK and Kazakhstan. For the EU-27, the USDA estimates a slight reduction to 122.6 million tons (previous month: 123 million tons)

The increase in wheat consumption is primarily due to higher imports from North African and Southeast Asian countries. In contrast, a slight decline in imports to 11.5 million tons is expected for China.

In a year-on-year comparison, global wheat stocks will fall from 266 to 258 million tons.

Global maize production will fall from 1,229 million tons last year to 1,219 million tons this year. Almost half of the decline is due to the reduced US harvest and the other half to losses in Ukraine. Lower results are also expected for Russia and the EU. This contrasts with notable increases in Brazil and South Africa.

Rising corn consumption will be influenced by increasing imports from Mexico and some Southeast Asian countries. In the USA, increased use for the production of bioethanol is expected, depending on the price of crude oil.

The remaining grain category will increase due to the expansion of summer seed cultivation as a result of the difficulties in planting in autumn 2023. However, production and consumption will balance each other out.

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