Feb. 2025: USDA again estimates world grain supply lower in 2024/25
In its latest Feb. 2025 issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated its global grain supply forecast for 2024/25. According to this, global grain production (excluding rice) is estimated to be around 2,300 million tons or -0.4% less than in the previous year. However, consumption is estimated to be 2,317 million tons or +0.8% higher.
The calculation of the supply balance shows a reduction in inventories to just 24.8% of final stocks in relation to consumption (previous year: 26.8%). This is the lowest result for over 10 years.
The global situation on the wheat market is characterized by slightly higher production of around 794 million tonnes (previous year: 791 million tonnes) and an increase in consumption of around 6 million tonnes to 803.7 million tonnes. This resulted in a reduction in stocks of around 10 million tons to just 257.6 million tons.
The reduction in Russian production of -11% and EU production of -10% played a decisive role in this development. This is offset by higher harvests in Australia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan and Argentina. On the consumption side, savings are being made in almost all countries. The reduction in consumption in China compared to previous developments is striking.
The USDA estimates global maize production at 1,212.5 million tons, almost 18 million tons less than in the previous year. The main reasons for this were the poor harvests in the USA (-12 million tons), Ukraine (-6 million tons), the EU (-4 million tons) and Russia (-3 million tons). In some growing regions, however, some of the reduced harvests were compensated for as a result of increased production.
Global maize consumption rose to 1,238 million tons (previous year: 1,219 million tons). China contributed significantly to this growth with an increase of +6 million tons; in addition, consumption increased in a majority of smaller regions.
Ending stocks of maize fell from 316 to 290 million tons. China and the USA are particularly affected with -8 million tons and -5 million tons respectively.
The remaining grain volume rises to over 280 million tons of production, which is offset by a slightly smaller increase in consumption.
The initial reaction on the Chicago Stock Exchange was a slight rise in prices.
