USDA again confirms tight supply situation on world grain market
In its latest Apr. 25 issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated the figures for the world grain supply in 2024/25 with few changes compared to the previous month. For the time being, it remains the case that production of 2,288 million tons is below consumption of 2,330 million tons. Stocks are being reduced to cover demand and now only account for 24.7% of final stocks compared to consumption. The last time such a supply situation was recorded was 10 years ago.
Although there is still uncertainty regarding the figures for global grain trade due to the current back and forth of customs policies, the grain marketing year is coming to an end, meaning that serious changes are no longer to be expected. The 3-month "customs break" should also help to calm things down for the time being. However, the outlook for 2025/26 is all the more critical, especially for those who want to work with forward contracts.
The global wheat market will remain largely unchanged with production of 797 million tons and consumption of 805 million tons. In this case, too, stocks will be reduced to 261 million tons (previous year: 269 million tons). China plays a special role here with a 45% decline in imports. Nevertheless, the Chinese have a "statistical wheat stockpile" of 85% of consumption.
The USDA has estimated global maize production at 1,215 million tons, 1 million tons higher than in the previous month. The main reason for this is the higher estimate for the EU maize harvest. Consumption was estimated to be around 2.5 million tons higher at 1,242 million tons. Here, too, the development in the EU plays the decisive role. No changes were made in the case of China. Global ending stocks fell to 287 million tons or 23% of consumption (previous year: 26%). Excluding China, the supply figures are a very tight 9.3% of final stocks to consumption.
For the remaining cereals (rye, barley, oats, etc.), production amounted to 280 million tons compared to consumption of 282 million tons.
