Following the publication of the USDA data on Friday, corn futures on the CME showed little buying interest and closed with losses of three to five cents per bushel. The September contract lost 24 cents and the December contract 25 cents, shortly after President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods from August 1, creating additional uncertainty.
Rainfall of almost 25 millimetres is expected in the central Corn Belt in the coming week, which could improve growing conditions. The USDA balance sheet provided for adjustments: Old crop consumption down 75 million bushels, exports up 100 million bushels. The carryout for 2024/25 thus fell to 1.35 billion bushels, 25 million less than before. New crop was reduced by 115 million bushels to 15.705 billion bushels, mainly due to lower acreage, yield remained at 181 bushels per acre Stocks fell by 90 million bushels to 1.66 billion.
The Brazil forecast rose to 132 million tons. Global stocks for 2025/26 fell by 3.16 million tons to 272.08 million tons due to the US figures.
The closing prices showed slight declines: July corn at USD 4.03 (-4 cents), September at USD 3.96 (-3 cents) and December at USD 4.12 (-4 cents).
On Euronext, the August 2025 contract rose to EUR 206.50 (+1.10 %), while the November contract fell to EUR 200.50 (-0.37 %). The March 2026 contract rose to 210 euros (+1.33 %). The remaining contracts for 2026 and 2027 showed slight declines or sideways movements. European markets are sensitive to global supply data, political developments and weather forecasts for key growing regions such as France and Romania.
Overall, the USDA data points to lower US production and reduced inventories, which may support prices in the long term. In the short term, however, good rain forecasts and political uncertainties are depressing prices on the CME and Euronext.
