The US wheat market was clearly under pressure in the middle of the week. In Chicago, SWR wheat for May fell by 18.75 US cents to 597.50 US cents/bushel. In Kansas, HRW wheat for May also fell sharply, losing 21.75 US cents to 613.75 US cents/bushel. Spring wheat in Minneapolis followed the weak trend and also fell significantly.
From a trader's point of view, classic profit-taking is dominating events after higher levels were recently reached. The weather outlook is having an additional bearish influence: Extensive precipitation is expected over the next seven days in the SWR wheat growing regions and in the eastern part of the Southern Plains. This development will significantly improve soil moisture and increase yield prospects. In the west of the Plains, however, the amounts will remain limited and will be less than 13 mm, which will hardly provide any regional relief. Above all, however, the news from Trump regarding an alleged imminent end to the war caused the price to fall. It is currently impossible to predict how likely an end to the conflict really is.
The market is now turning its attention to the upcoming export figures. Traders are expecting sales of between 200,000 tons and 500,000 tons for the old harvest, while a volume of 100,000 tons to 300,000 tons is expected for the new harvest. The figures are likely to provide short-term impetus, although the overall improvement in the supply situation is clearly having a negative impact at present.
Wheat also fell on Euronext, losing €3.50 to €201.25/t for May. With the long weekend approaching, risk appetite is also decreasing, which is further reinforcing the downward trend.
