Wheat prices came under pressure across the board at the end of the week. Contracts on all three US futures exchanges recorded losses on Friday, triggered by a higher-than-expected total US harvest. Chicago wheat (SRW) lost 9 to 10 US cents at the end of the week, with the September contract falling by 11.75 cents over the course of the week.
The market was also weaker on Euronext in Paris. The most traded September 2025 contract fell slightly by 0.25 €/t to 201.00 €/t. The December 25 contract lost 1.00 €/t and was last valued at 209.25 €/t. Similar discounts were also seen for the more distant dates up to May 2026. Overall, the futures market continues to signal weak price expectations.
In its latest report, the USDA raised total US wheat production in 2025/26 by 8 million bushels to 1.929 billion bushels (≈ 52.5 million tons). While the winter wheat harvest was reduced by 37 million bushels due to smaller areas, the forecasts for spring wheat (503.6 million bushels) and durum wheat (79.7 million bushels) were above expectations. Ending stocks for the new crop were raised to 851 million bushels, but were partially offset by higher export expectations (850 million bushels), causing ending stocks to fall to 890 million bushels (≈ 24.2 million tons).
At a global level, the USDA lowered its forecast for world ending stocks for 2025/26 by 1.24 million tons to 261.25 million tons, particularly as a result of lower production in Canada. The global wheat harvest remained almost stable at 808.6 million tons. However, export expectations were reduced by 1.2 million tons to 213.1 million tons. For the EU, exports are expected to fall to 32.5 million tons, despite an increased harvest forecast of 137.3 million tons. Russia is expected to export 46 million tons more, while Ukraine is expected to export 15.5 million tons less than before.
A new US tariff measure also had a negative impact: President Trump announced an increase in import tariffs on Canadian products to 35% from August 1 - this decision was not yet included in the WASDE report.
