10.
04.24
Average price remains, margin narrows

Hogs News, 10th / Apr / 2024

Bullish
  • persistent shortage of live supplies
Bearish
  • tough meat demand

Germany: V- price €2.20/ kg (range €2.15 - €2.20/kg) The weekly slaughter figures were lower at around 618,791 pigs (previous week 6 ) due to the holiday, the slaughter weights increased slightly at 97.7 kg . The advance registrations were larger again at 270,000 pigs (previous week 264,900) . The ISN auction on Tuesday, April 9, 2024 brought an average of €2.26/kg in a range of €2.25 - €2.26/kg. The surplus was 60%. The V-price has been set at €2.20/kg in a range of €2.15 - €2.20/kg for the period from April 11, 2024 to April 17, 2024. ASF : As of April 5, 2024, 5,679 wild boars infected with ASF have been detected in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg. The infection pressure has decreased significantly. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark , the comparable prices remained unchanged at €1.81/kg in week 15 of 2024. In Belgium, the comparable prices of €2.08/kg also remained unchanged in week 15 of 2024. In the Netherlands, the quotations will continue unchanged in week 15 of 2024 with comparable prices of €2.08/kg . In France/Brittany, the prices remained unchanged at €2.03/kg . The slaughter figures are at 294.793 pigs below average due to public holidays with a slaughter weight of 96.46 kg. In Italy, prices were reduced by -1 ct/kg in week 15 of 2024. Limited supply meets average demand. In Spain, prices will remain unchanged at a comparable €2.35/kg in week 15 of 2024. The live supply remains tight with subdued demand. In the USA/IOWA, producer prices have jumped to the current €1.90/kg . Slaughter numbers are low, cut prices have risen sharply. Cold storage stocks have fallen . For the summer barbecue season, stock prices are trading at over €2.12/kg. The autumn/winter dates, however, are back at an average of €1.75/kg. Brazil: Producer prices have stabilized on average at €1.54/kg . Demand from the processing industry leaves much to be desired. Support from the export business is still low. However, rising sales figures and high prices are expected for 2024. China: Prices have stabilized again at €2.56/kg . The usual seasonal weakness in demand will remain for the time being. The month of May 2024 will be traded on the Dalian stock exchange at €2.60/kg. The most recently determined sow population is 40.6 million tonnes and is therefore still far from the political target of 39 million in a range of 92 to 105%. Conclusion: In most EU countries, with a few exceptions, pork prices have remained at the elevated price level. Low slaughter numbers, low advance registrations, small cold storage stocks, stockpiling for the barbecue season and stable demand ensure stable pork prices. However, there is hardly any scope for upward price increases due to the tough meat sales business.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Despite the relative scarcity of live meat, there is little scope for price increases because the meat sales business is very resilient. Future positive expectations are based on increasing demand for barbecues, weather permitting.

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