Hogs News, 16th / Apr / 2024

USDA: global pork production, consumption and trade in 2024

In the latest April issue, the US Department of Agriculture updated its quarterly forecast for the global pork market in 2024. Overall, the market volume will continue to decline slightly, but will vary in the individual production regions.

In China, the world's largest region (almost 50% share), production is expected to fall by 3% to 55.95 million tons and consumption is also expected to decline to 57.72 million tons. China's import requirements will be slightly reduced to 1.87 million tons of meat excluding by-products. A lack of population growth and low income levels are preventing the usual growth rates of the past.

The USDA is forecasting growth of 2% to 21.15 million tons for the EU-27, the second largest production area. However, consumption in the domestic market is only expected to increase by 1% to 18 million tons. High price levels combined with falling feed costs are providing a boost. EU exports are slowly recovering to 3.22 million tons. In 2020, it was 5.17 million tons.

The USA itself, as the third largest pork producer, expects production volumes to rise by 3% to 12.75 million tons. Domestic consumption is estimated at 8.98 million tons. Exports are expected to increase by 8 % to 3.33 million tons. Increasing deliveries to Mexico play a particularly important role here.

Brazil continues to grow, with an increase of 4% to 4.63 million tons. With limited domestic demand, Brazilian exports are expected to rise by 5% to 1.5 million tons.

Russia continues to push ahead with 3.9 million tons. The new opportunities for exports to China are also boosting exports to 220,000 tons in total.

Canada's pork production is estimated to remain unchanged at 2.05 million tons. Of this, 1.33 million tons will be exported.

With the exception of Vietnam and the Philippines, which are recovering from ASF, there is comparatively little movement in the other countries.