Germany:V-price2.20 €/kg (range 2.20 - 2.25 €/kg)
The weekly slaughter figures have fallen again to around 694,350 pigs (previous week 721,875), with slaughter weights dropping to 97.3 kg .
Pre-registrations are unchanged at 253,700 pigs (previous week 253,700) .
The ISN auction on Tue, June 25, 2024 brought 2.30 €/kg in a range of 2.30 - 2.30 €/kg.
The V-price for the period from 26.06.2024 to 03.07.2024 has been set at €2.20/kg in a range of €2.20 - €2.25/kg.
German slaughter pig market
ASF: As of June 25, 2024, 5,744 ASF-infected wild boars have been detected in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg. In Groß-Gerau (northwest of Darmstadt in Hesse), 6 ASF-infected wild boars have been found in the meantime. In a 15 km exclusion zone, 72 predominantly small farms with a total of 5,600 animals are affected. Only one farm keeps around 2,000 pigs.
Market and price developments in selected competitor countries:
In Denmark , the comparably calculated prices remained unchanged at €1.74/kg in CW 26, 2024.
In Belgium, the comparably calculated prices of €2.10/kg also remained unchanged in CW 26, 2024.
In the Netherlands , prices in CW 26, 2024 are valued -2 ct/kg lower at comparable prices of €2.13/kg.
In France/Brittany , prices rose by +3 ct/kg to €2.055/kg . Slaughter numbers continue to fall to 348,373; slaughter weights are at 95.96 kg.
In Italy, prices rose again by +1 ct/kg in week 26, 2024. Meat sales remain calm.
In Spain, a further increase of €2.40/kg in week 26 of 2024 reflects the scarce live supply. High temperatures reduce weight gains and the number of fattening pigs. Slaughter capacities are not fully utilized, but meat sales remain difficult in view of the high prices.
In the USA/IOWA , producer prices have stabilized at the current €1.77/kg. However, cut prices have fallen. Stocks in cold stores are sufficiently high. Slaughter numbers have risen again. Market prices of €2.12/kg are being traded for the summer barbecue season in July.However, forward prices for Dec. 24 are only averaging €1.58/kg.
Brazil: Producer prices have risen again to an average of €1.58/kg. Production losses due to the floods in Rio Grande do Sul are leading to tighter supplies for domestic and foreign business.
China: Prices have risen abruptly to € 3.15/kg. The previous reduction in stocks is leading to lower supply. The announcement of import duties on EU pork may still be playing a role. The month of Nov-2024 is traded on the Dalian exchange at prices of around €3.09/kg. Prices are expected to fall to just under €3/kg in Jan-2025.
Conclusion: Despite the low live supply and low cold storage stocks, there is no upward scope for prices so far. Nevertheless, it is expected that price increases will be possible in the near future in view of full slaughter weeks, increasing barbecue activities and the European Football Championship. However, the ASF cases in Hesse and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have contributed to uncertainty.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Last hopes are pinned on the few weeks before the start of the main holiday season. More favorable barbecue weather could provide support, as could continued success in the European Football Championship. The live supply remains limited.
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