30.
08.23
Prices remain stable

Hogs News, 30/Aug/2023

Bullish
  • limited battle numbers
  • decreasing slaughter weights
  • Pre-registrations within the framework
  • Hoping for an increase in demand due to the end of the vacation
Bearish
  • low demand due to inflation

Germany: V price 2.30 €/ kg (range 2.30 – 2.30 €/kg)                                               The weekly slaughter numbers were higher again at 717,191 pigs ( previous week 708,086) , but the slaughter weights fell significantly at 97.3 kg . With 236,800 pigs (previous week 227,800), the pre-registrations have risen again somewhat. At the ISN auction on Tue. 29.08 2023 an average price of €2.30/kg . There was a supernatant of 80%. The V price has been set at €2.30/kg in a range of €2.30 - €2.30/kg for the period from August 31, 2023 to September 6, 2023. ASF : As of August 28, 2023, 5,540 ASF-infected wild boars have been officially confirmed in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg. For the month of July-2023, 48 cases were registered. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark, the comparably calculated prices of €2.25/kg were reduced again by 3 ct/kg in the 35th week of 2023. In Belgium, prices remained unchanged in the 35th week of 2023 at a comparable €2.23/kg .In the Netherlands , prices will remain unchanged in the 35th week of 2023 at a comparable €2.18/kg . In France/Brittany the prices have been reset by -6 cents/kg to €2.09/kg . The number of battles rose to 355,972; Slaughter weights are 96.65 kg. In Italy , the prices remained at the high level in the 35th week of 2023 . The offer just covers the needs. The seasonal holiday effect still has an impact. In Spain, prices will be reduced for the third time by -3 ct/kg in the 35th week of 2023 with a comparable €2.52/ kg. Low competitive prices for meat sales are forcing prices to be adjusted downwards. In the USA/IOWA, producer prices have fallen to 1.76 €/kg. The number of battles has increased again. However, unit prices have stabilized. For Oct. 23, the stock market prices are only at €1.66/kg.Brazil: Producer prices have stabilized again on average at €1.51/kg . Demand declines in the second half of the month. The live supply remains limited depending on the season. After the reduced export figures in July, hopes are again focused on increasing export business in the coming months. China: Prices have fallen back to €2.74/kg. The government's stockpile purchases only caused a temporary increase in prices. Only for the consumption-intensive month of January 2024 is €2.93/kg expected again. The price problem is largely due to the income-related weak demand. Conclusion:   The live supply of slaughter pigs and pre-registrations has increased slightly. The end of vacation and the first of the month should give rise to the market situation becoming more stable and possibly creating room for improvement.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Prices remain at current levels because the live supply remains subdued. The expectations of increasing demand with corresponding price effects are justified by the end of vacation and the beginning of the month with wage and salary payments.

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