11.
12.24
Prices remain unchanged

Pig News, 11.12.2024

Bullish
  • Pre-Christmas business
Bearish
  • Increasing live supply
  • Missing slaughter days in the future

Germany:V-price1.92 €/kg (range 1.92 - 1.92 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter figures have risen to 768,782 pigs (previous week 765,060), while slaughter weights have fallen slightly to 98.45 kg.

Pre-registrations for the current week amount to 286,300 (previous week 278,400).

The ISN auction on Tue, 10.12.2024 has been canceled.

The V-price for the period from 12.12.2024 to 18.12.2024 has been set at €1.92/kg in a range of €1.92 - €1.92/kg

Slaughter pig market in Germany

ASF: A total of 566 ASF-infected wild boars (+14 compared to the previous week) have been found in Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate. An ASF wild boar carcass has floated 100 km down the Rhine.

Market and price developments in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , the comparably calculated prices of €1.60/kg will once again remain unchanged in CW 50, 2024.

In Belgium, the comparably calculated prices of € 1.91/kg will also remain unchanged in week 50 of 2024.

In the Netherlands , prices will also remain unchanged in week 50 of 2024 with comparable prices of €1.85/kg.

In France/Brittany , comparable prices will remain unchanged at € 1.87/kg . Slaughter numbers have fallen back to average levels at 361,000; slaughter weights are at 98.2 kg.

In Italy, prices in week 50 of 2024 remained unchanged at €1.93/kg. Rising domestic and import volumes are putting pressure on the price trend amid subdued demand.

In Spain, the price was once again maintained at € 2.06/kg in week 50, 2024. Domestic live supply is barely sufficient. The export business is only average.

In the USA/IOWA , producer prices have fallen back to € 1.69/kg. Slaughter figures remain at the same level. Meat sales are beginning to crumble. Forward prices for the new front month Feb-25 remain at an average of €1.70/kg.

Brazil: Producer prices have fallen significantly to €1.96/kg. The main reason for this is the weaker currency. This means that the weeks-long high price phase appears to be over for the time being. An agreement with China offers further sales opportunities. The Mercosur agreement is insignificant.

China: Prices have risen again to €3.00/kg. Supply is just sufficient for a slight increase in demand. The month Jan-2025 is traded on the Dalian exchange with prices around 2.56 €/kg. After the Chinese New Year on January 29, 2025, prices fall further to €2.30/kg. The sow herd has fallen by -3.2 %, but is still above the target value.

Conclusion: A little changed low live supply and a pre-Christmas demand mood balance each other out. Meat sales of prime cuts and processed goods are currently running largely smoothly.

The coming week will be the last with full slaughter days. The gap between Christmas and New Year is particularly small this year with 4 slaughter days. In addition, there is a holiday-related shortage of workers, especially in processing plants; a lot of goods are going into the freezer. Timely control of marketing to avoid sales backlogs and price pressure should be planned thoroughly.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

A slight increase in live supply is still largely balanced out by the pre-Christmas business. In the coming week, with slaughter days still full, supply is likely to increase significantly due to early deliveries. The market situation will be more critical over the holidays.

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