01.
10.25
No further recovery in demand

Schweine News, 01/Oct/2025

Bullish
  • Steady outflow of slaughter sows despite pressure in the meat sector
  • Hope for demand stimulus from the long weekend
  • Drop in feed prices reduces production costs
Bearish
  • Chinese punitive tariffs burden third-country exports and cause uncertainty
  • Meat market remains lackluster, domestic demand weak
  • Euro still strong

Germany: V-price 1.85 €/kg (range 1.85 - 1.85 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter figures have not yet been published (previous week: 741,378). Slaughter weights were 98.2 kg in the previous week.

The pre-registrations for the current week amount to 283,300 (previous week: 278,600)

The ISN auction on Tue, 30.09.2025 did not deliver a result.

The V-price is for the period from 02.10.2025 to 08.10.2025has been set at €1.85/kg within a range of €1.85 - €1.85/kg .

Market and price development in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , the comparably calculated prices remained unchanged at €1.73/kg in week 40, 2025.

In Belgium, there was no change in week 40, 2025. The price is therefore again at € 1.58/kg.

In the Netherlands, prices fell by 5 ct in week 40, 2025, to €1. 68/kg.

In France/Brittany , comparable prices fell by 2 ct to €1.80/kg in week 40.

In Italy, prices rose by 1 ct to €2.68/kg in week 40, 2025.

In Spain, the comparable price fell by 4 ct in week 40, 2025 and is now lower at € 2.00/kg.

USA: at a dollar exchange rate of 1.17 $ = 1.00 € , producer prices are currently around 1.92 €/kg and have therefore fallen by around 9 ct compared to the previous week. Last week, slaughter activity in the USA increased slightly, which indicates a stable supply situation. At the same time, pig prices came under pressure: the base price in Iowa fell noticeably compared to the previous week. The decline was particularly evident in the belly and ham cuts, both of which fell towards the end of the month.

Brazil: Current producer prices are the equivalent of €1.81/kg and fell again last week. The Brazilian pig market was stable overall in the last week of September 2025, even though live pig prices fell slightly due to seasonal factors. New Chinese tariffs on EU pork are opening up additional opportunities for Brazilian exporters. Overall, producers are benefiting from comparatively high prices, solid demand and low feed costs. Market sentiment is correspondingly optimistic.

China: Prices in China are currently at the equivalent of €2.03/kg on the spot market and have thus stabilized at the previous week's level. The reason for the nevertheless low level is a massive oversupply coupled with weak domestic demand due to a cooling economy. The government is responding with support purchases for state meat reserves and is urging large producers to reduce their breeding stocks. At the same time, Beijing has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties of up to 62% on EU pork, which is reorganizing international trade flows.

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Conclusion
The live supply of pigs for slaughter remains seasonally high, while demand on the meat market remains subdued. There are no slaughter days this week due to public holidays, which makes marketing even more difficult. On the piglet market, ample supply is meeting quiet demand and the spot markets remain under pressure. Prices are stabilizing after previous declines. In Europe, the situation is mixed, albeit mostly bearish. Exports remain burdened by Chinese punitive tariffs.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The pig market remains fragile. While price levels are holding up, there is no fundamental upturn in demand. The European market situation remains tense, particularly in export-dependent regions. The loss of slaughter days and sluggish spot marketing are having a negative impact. In the long term, stronger demand outside Europe could provide some relief. However, the uncertainties surrounding political measures and trade barriers are having a dampening effect on producers' investment and marketing decisions.

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