Germany: V price 2.28 €/kg (range 2.28 – 2.33 €/kg) The weekly slaughter figures are repeatedly small with 705,205 pigs ( previous week 700,011 ); the slaughter weights have increased slightly to 97.1 kg . At 225,300 pigs (previous week 220,400 ), the pre-registrations remain too small for the increasing demand.Price quotation for cuts has been discontinued. At the ISN auction on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, an average price of €2.39/kg (0 ct/kg) was achieved within a range of €2.38 to €2.39/kg. However, the overhang is 64%! The V price for the period from 02/23/2023 to 03/01/2023 remained at €2.28/kg; the range is from 2.28 to 2.33 €/kg. ASF : As of February 21, 2023, 5,052 ASF infected wild boars in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg have been officially confirmed. Current focal points of the finds are Brandenburg and Saxony. M arket and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark, prices in the 08th week of 2023 have been increased to a comparable calculated €1.77/kg (+5 ct/kg).Denmark's high dependency on exports to third countries slows down higher price increases. In Belgium, the prices in the 08th week of 2023 increased by €2.16/kg by a further +6 ct/kg. A scarce live supply meets an increasing demand for meat. In the Netherlands, the prices in the 08th week of 2023 increased by +7 ct/kg to a comparable calculated €2.16/kg . In this region, too, the small supply of live animals is too scarce for the demand. In France/Brittany, prices rose by a further 4 cents/ kg to €2.14/ kg . Slaughter figures are as low as 354,773 pigs. The slaughter weights have remained constant at 95.6 kg. In Italy, the listings in the 08th week of 2023 increased by a further 5 ct/kg . The supply remains too small for the demand. In Spain, the prices in the 8th week of 2023 were increased again by 6 ct/kg at a comparable €2.41/ kg.Slaughter pigs from Germany and abroad are sought to utilize the slaughter capacities. Sales are increasingly geared towards the EU internal market. In the USA/IOWA, prices have stabilized at the equivalent of €1.60/kg . Battle numbers remain at reduced levels. However, the part prices are falling. For the front month Apr-2023, the futures prices on the stock exchange are €1.77/kg; for the summer months prices of over 2 €/kg are already being traded. Brazil: Producer prices have increased to €1.85/kg on average with REAL becoming stronger again. A small live supply and an increasing demand for carnival are the causes. China: Prices fell further in the week of Feb. 1, 2023 to the equivalent of €2.73/kg . The demand for meat is seasonally weak. On the Dalian Stock Exchange, March 2023 prices are traded at the equivalent of only €2.78/kg. Only for the July 2023 delivery are prices back at €3.20/kg.The exchange rate has changed little. Conclusion: The previous reduction in pig stocks in almost all EU member states has led to an increasingly scarce supply of pigs for slaughter. In the meantime, the quantities of meat are hardly sufficient to meet the demand. In addition, there is a usual build-up of inventories for the coming months of high consumption. Repeated, above-average price increases were pushed through. A price cap has not yet been reached. According to the livestock census results, the live supply will not increase in the near future.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The persistently low supply is scarce enough to push through a high price level with restrained demand. According to the results of the livestock census, no fundamental change in the low supply is to be expected in the foreseeable future. On the other hand, seasonal growth is usually expected on the demand side, but this is likely to be less pronounced this year due to price factors. Prices have not yet reached the end of the road.
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