29.
03.23
Average price remains, margin increased

Schweine News, 03/29/2023

Bullish
  • persistently scarce living supply
  • increasing demand for Easter business
  • Pigs are scarce across the EU
Bearish
  • subdued demand for meat
  • insufficient export opportunities

Germany: V price 2.33 €/kg (range 2.33 – 2.38 €/kg) - the weekly slaughter figures have fallen again to 732,185 pigs ( previous week 740,817 ), the slaughter weights have fallen somewhat to 97.15 kg . With 239,300 pigs (previous week 234,000 ), the pre-registrations remain well below the average of previous years. At the ISN auction on Tue, Mar 28In 2023, an average price of €2.46/kg was achieved, unchanged from the pre-auction in a range of €2.40 to €2.475/kg. The V price has been retained for the period from March 30, 2023 to April 5, 2023 at €2.33/kg in a range of €2.33 to €2.38/kg; ASF : As of March 28, 2023, 5,188 ASF infected wild boars in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg have been officially confirmed. The focus of the most recent finds was in Brandenburg and in the district of Dresden. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark , prices in the 13th week of 2023 were increased by +8 ct /kg to a comparable calculated €1.90/kg . This means that the gap to the other countries is noticeably smaller. In Belgium, the prices in the 13th week of 2023 have been increased by €2.21/kg .The live supply is becoming scarcer due to the export of slaughter pigs, but meat sales are still difficult. In the Netherlands , the prices in the 13th week of 2023 have also been increased by +5 ct/kg at a comparable calculated €2.21/ kg. In France/Brittany, prices have increased slightly to €2.38/kg . Slaughter figures remain at a low 354,169 pigs. Slaughter weights have increased to 96.15 kg. In Italy, the listings in the 13th week of 2023 increased by a further 2 ct/kg . Despite the difficult situation in meat sales, the supply of live meat remains too small to meet demand. In Spain, the prices in the 13th week of 2023 were increased again by 3 ct/kg at a comparable €2.63/ kg. High animal losses as a result of the PRRS epidemic ensure that the domestic supply is tight. Pigs are brought in from abroad. The Spanish Pig Association fears that ASF will be introduced as a result of the large number of piglet imports.In the USA/IOWA, prices have fallen to the equivalent of €1.55/kg . The battle numbers have increased slightly. The part prices are inconsistent and tend to fall somewhat. Stock market listings for the summer months remain below €2/kg. Higher expectations were disappointed. Brazil: The producer prices have been lowered again on average to 1.58 €/kg with REAL weakening again. By Brazilian standards, the prices are still average. For cost reasons, the number of pigs has declined considerably. Exports in the first two months of 2023 were 11% up on the same period last year. The main sales areas remain China/HK, South Korea and the Philippines. China: Prices fell again in mid-March 2023 to the equivalent of €2.80/kg . The demand for meat remains seasonally weak. Government stock purchases to stabilize prices are only having a moderate effect. Only for Sep.23, prices of the equivalent of 3.24 €/kg will be traded again on the Dalian Stock Exchange. ASF spread is increasing again in the north of the country with a new virus variant. The trigger is travel after the lifting of the Covid restrictions. Conclusion: The battle numbers remain low compared to previous years. Cold store stocks are well below average. The preparations for Easter have picked up speed. Price increases can no longer be averted. The current demand for meat is still cautious. A scarce live supply can be observed in all EU Member States. There is still room for maneuver before the holidays.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The Easter business is picking up speed. Even if consumers are still holding back, precautions for the usually increasing demand for meat for the Easter holidays must be set in motion in good time. However, this is offset by a persistently scarce supply of living animals. Cold store stocks are also exceptionally low. Similar scarcity conditions prevail throughout the EU internal market. The price increase potential has not yet been exhausted before the holidays.

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