03.
12.25
ASF burdens exports - EU market remains supplied

Schweine News, 03/Dec/2025

Bullish
  • Seasonal upturn in demand for meat, particularly for popular cuts
  • Steady demand from slaughterhouses despite high availability
  • Hope for Christmas business
Bearish
  • Export restrictions as a result of ASF in Spain
  • Demand stimuli from Christmas business so far below expectations
  • Strong euro

Germany: V-price 1.60 €/kg (range 1.60 - 1.60 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter figures are still pending(previous week: 757,879) The slaughter weights are also still pending. In the previous week, they were 98.6 kg.

The pre-registrations for the current week amount to 277,400 (previous week: 274,800)

The ISN auction on Tue, 02.12.2025 achieved a price of 1.60 €/kg in a range of 1.60 - 160 €/kg.

The V-price is for the period from 04.12.2025 to 10.12.2025has been set at € 1.60/kg within a range of € 1.60 - € 1.60/kg .

Market and price development in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , comparably calculated prices are unchanged at €1.53/kg in week 49, 2025.

In Belgium, prices in the 49th week of 2025 are unchanged at €1.40/kg.

In the Netherlands , prices in week 49, 2025 are unchanged at €1.46/kg.

In France/Brittany , comparable prices are unchanged in week 49 and stand at €1.68/kg.

In Italy prices fell by 5 ct in the 49th week of 2025 and now stand at 2.25 €/kg remained unchanged.

In Spain the comparable price in the 49th week of 2025 fell by 2 ct and stands at 1.72 €/kg is now lower.

USA: at a dollar exchange rate of 1.16 $ = 1.00 € , producer prices are currently around 1.36 €/kg and have therefore fallen again compared to the previous week. The US pig industry can look back on a week of seasonally high supply. While holiday effects briefly dampened slaughter activity, demand from processors and export markets remained robust. Mexico in particular once again made a significant contribution to securing sales, while China also returned as a buyer following tariff reductions. In the large pig states such as Iowa and North Carolina, the focus was not only on economic stability but also on political issues such as environmental requirements and husbandry regulations. Positive court rulings and regulatory relief are currently strengthening the competitiveness of producers there.

Brazil: Current producer prices are the equivalent of €1.82/kg and have remained stable compared to the previous week after adjusting for exchange rate effects. The Brazilian pig market is stable at the end of the year with a positive underlying trend. After a phase of strong price increases in November, market activity has recently calmed down, with supply and demand well balanced. Exports remain a mainstay of the industry: Asian countries in particular, such as the Philippines, Japan and Vietnam, increased their imports significantly and compensated for declining purchases from China. New markets such as Tanzania and Suriname were also opened up, further strengthening Brazil's role as a global supplier. Looking ahead to the end of the year, there is cautious optimism, driven by strong foreign demand, favorable conditions and seasonally rising domestic demand.

China: Prices in China have fallen again in the last week and are at the equivalent of €1.82/kg on the spot market. China's pig market is currently under strong pressure: oversupply is meeting with restrained demand, which is causing the industry to enter a sustained downward spiral. Despite the start of the winter season and traditional stock production, consumption remains surprisingly weak. Many consumers are turning to other sources of protein. At the same time, high slaughter weights and a hesitant reduction in stocks are leading to full markets. Although government agencies are intervening to provide support in certain areas, for example through reserve purchases or guidelines for reducing production, the structural supply surplus remains. The outbreak of ASF in Spain could reduce the supply of the overall market, as China is stopping imports. However, these have recently fallen sharply anyway due to the anti-dumping duties.

asp

Conclusion
The slaughter pig market is stable with demand from slaughterhouses remaining high. The supply of pigs ready for slaughter is extensive, but the pace of supply varies from region to region. Demand for meat is picking up slightly, but remains below seasonal expectations. The marketing of piglets is complex but stabilized. In European trade, African swine fever in Spain is weighing on the export business, while the EU market as a whole is well supplied and prices are largely stable.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The market situation appears balanced, but remains fragile. Positive momentum in the meat market points to a seasonal upturn, but is coming unusually late. Developments in Spain could still cause unrest on the export side. China is stopping imports due to ASF. This will increase supply pressure within the EU and hit local producers at an inopportune time, as prices are at a low level. The stable to declining trend in feed costs will ease the pressure on production slightly. The further development depends heavily on the course of the Christmas business and is likely to vary from region to region.

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