21.
06.23
Average price stable - range significantly widened upwards.

Schweine News, 06/21/2023

Bullish
  • persistently scarce living supply
  • low cold store inventories
  • barbecue weather
Bearish
  • Beginning of the holiday/vacation period
  • high price level slows consumption

Germany: V price 2.43 €/ kg (range 2.43 – 2.50 €/kg)The weekly slaughter figures are slightly higher at 708,899 pigs ( previous week 696,696) , the slaughter weights are slightly lower at 97.2 kg . The pre-registrations remain at a comparatively low level with 238,100 pigs (previous week 238,500) . At the ISN auction on Tue, Jun 20In 2023, an average price of €2.61/kg or -3 ct/kg was achieved at the pre-auction in a range of €2.58 to €2.645/kg. The V price has been set at €2.43/kg for the period from June 22, 2023 to June 28, 2023 within a range of €2.43 to €2.50/kg. ASF : As of June 16, 2023, 5,406 ASF infected wild boars in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg have been officially confirmed. A total of 70 cases were identified for the month of May 2023. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark, the comparably calculated prices of €2.04/kg were repeatedly retained unchanged in the 25th week of 2023. In Belgium, the prices in the 25th week of 2023 will remain unchanged at €2.30/kg .In the Netherlands , the prices in the 25th week of 2023 have been increased by around 3 ct /kg with a comparable calculation of €2.33/kg . In France/Brittany, the prices will be increased by +5 ct/kg to €2.245/kg . Battle numbers fall again to 359,376; the slaughter weight is 95.8 kg. In Italy , the listings in the 25th week of 2023 have been increased by a further 1 ct/kg . Holiday-related increases in demand and a tight supply are price-determining elements. In Spain, the prices in the 25th week of 2023 remained unchanged at a comparable €2.64/ kg for the umpteenth time. The high price level slows down sales opportunities at home and abroad. In the USA/IOWA, prices have fallen back to €1.79/kg . Battle numbers have increased slightly. Despite the barbecue season, demand remains subdued.The stock exchange prices for Jul.-23 are listed at 1.88 €/kg, for Oct.-23 however only at 1.60 €/kg. Brazil: Producer prices have increased slightly on average to €1.45/kg . Low prices in the southern surplus regions are keeping quotations in the northern high-price areas in check. After high export figures in the first quarter of 2023, foreign business weakened seasonally. China: Prices remain low at the end of May 2023 at the equivalent of €2.55/kg . The demand for meat is seasonally weak. On the Dalian Stock Exchange, Sep. 23 prices are traded at the equivalent of only 2.70 €/kg. Government stock purchases do not succeed in raising prices noticeably. Conclusion: The scarce supply of live food in the EU internal market and the low cold store stocks in connection with the favorable barbecue weather open up further upward price leeway. The start of the holiday/vacation period sets limits. Only Denmark and Spain are keeping prices constant due to their above-average dependence on exports.Higher average prices are difficult to enforce. Extended upper range opens up room for negotiation

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The persistently scarce supply of live animals and the limited reserves are driving up prices in some regions, while in other sales areas a certain pain threshold seems to have been reached. The average price has the function of the lower minimum price; the significant widening of the range ceiling opens up room for negotiation and signals future price increases.

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