05.
07.23
V price stabilizes at €2.50/kg

Schweine News, 07/05/2023

Bullish
  • persistently scarce living supply
  • reduced battle weights
  • low cold store stocks
  • stable demand
Bearish
  • .

Germany: V price 2.50 €/ kg (range 2.50 – 2.50 €/kg)The weekly slaughter figures are smaller at 673,667 pigs ( previous week 693,015) , the slaughter weights are somewhat lower at 96.9 kg . With 235,700 pigs (previous week 234,500), the pre-registrations remain at a comparatively low level. At the ISN auction on Tue, Jul 04.In 2023, an average price of €2.60/kg or -1 ct/kg was achieved at the pre-auction in a range of €2.58 to €2.615/kg. The V price has been set at €2.50/kg in a range of €2.50 to €2.50/kg for the period from July 6th, 2023 to July 12th, 2023. ASF : As of July 3rd, 2023, 5,447 ASF infected wild boars in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg have been officially confirmed. There are new ASF cases in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark, the comparably calculated prices of €2.04/kg were repeatedly retained unchanged in the 27th week of 2023. In Belgium, the prices in the 27th week of 2023 will be increased by €2.33/kg by +1 ct/kg. In the Netherlands, prices are in the 27thKW 2023 has been increased by 5 ct/kg with a comparable calculation of €2.38/kg . In France/Brittany, the prices will be increased by +6 ct/kg to €2.35/kg . Battle numbers remain low at 347,860; the slaughter weight drops to 94.93 kg. In Italy , the listings in the 27th week of 2023 have been increased by a further 3 ct/kg . A scarce supply is faced with an increasing demand due to increasing numbers of holidaymakers. In Spain, the prices in the 27th week of 2023 remained unchanged at a comparable €2.64/ kg for the umpteenth time. Sales difficulties at home and abroad limit any price increases In the USA/IOWA, the roller coaster ride is driving prices up to €1.97/kg. Battle numbers have fallen sharply. Barbecue season ensures steady demand. However, the stock market prices for Oct.-23 are only at €1.60/kg.Brazil: Producer prices continued to rise on average to €1.57/kg . The live supply remains seasonally small. Prices in the listing areas are again diverging. Pork exports are limited, while sales of beef to China are increasing significantly. China: Prices stabilize at €2.68/kg. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday (one of 3 major festivals in China), demand remains subdued. The Sep. 23 rates are traded at the equivalent of €2.70/kg. Only for the consumption-intensive month of Jan 2024 is it again expected to be over 3 €/kg. Conclusion: Despite the start of holidays with subdued demand, the supply is only able to cover the demand from the slaughterhouses to a limited extent. Fresh meat for grilling is in demand; Processing goods cause sales difficulties. According to the results of the livestock census, the supply of slaughter pigs will not increase in the coming months, but will tend to decrease.That gives hope!

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The persistently scarce live supply with reduced slaughter weights and low cold storage stocks lead to a very limited availability of fresh meat and grilled meat despite the holiday season with weakened demand. The prices are correspondingly fixed. The prospects for an increase in supply are negative. A further shortage is more likely, as can be deduced from the results of the cattle census.

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