12.
07.23
Price unchanged at €2.50/kg, but range increased

Schweine News, 07/12/2023

Bullish
  • persistently low battle numbers
  • low slaughter weights
  • low cold store stocks
  • Pre-registrations remain small
Bearish
  • .

Germany: V price 2.50 €/ kg (range 2.50 – 2.53 €/kg)The weekly slaughter figures are higher at 694,925 pigs ( previous week 673,667) , the slaughter weights are slightly higher at 97 kg . With 236,200 pigs (previous week 235,700), the pre-registrations remain at a comparatively low level. At the ISN auction on Tue, Jul 11In 2023, an average price of €2.62/kg or -3 ct/kg was achieved at the pre-auction in a range of €2.595 to €2.64/kg. The V price has been set at €2.50/kg for the period from July 13, 2023 to July 19, 2023 within a range of €2.50 to €2.53/kg. ASF : As of July 9th, 2023, 5,460 ASF infected wild boars in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg have been officially confirmed. In June 2023 alone, 50 cases were reported in Brandenburg and 25 cases in the Dresden district. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark, the comparably calculated prices of €2.04/kg were repeatedly retained unchanged in the 28th week of 2023. In Belgium, the prices in the 28th week of 2023 will remain unchanged at €2.33/kg .In the Netherlands , the prices in the 28th week of 2023 have also remained unchanged with a comparable calculated €2.38/kg . In France/Brittany, prices stabilize at €2.35/kg. Battle numbers remain at a low 340,982; the slaughter weight falls to 94.84 kg. July 14th is a national holiday. In Italy , the listings in the 28th week of 2023 have been increased by a further 2 ct/kg . A scarce supply is faced with an increasing demand due to increasing numbers of holidaymakers. In Spain, the prices in the 28th week of 2023 remain unchanged at a comparable €2.64/ kg for 3.5 months. A scarce living supply and limited sales opportunities are the two decisive factors. In the USA/IOWA, prices stabilize at €1.96/kg. Battle numbers are back to seasonal levels. Barbecue season ensures steady demand.Brazil: Producer prices continued to rise on average to €1.64/kg . The living supply remains seasonally small; on the other hand, demand is increasing due to a number of celebrations. Pork exports are limited, beef sales to China are going well. China: Prices fall back to €2.45/kg after the Dragon Boat Festival. The Sep. 23 rates are traded at the equivalent of €2.56/kg. Only for the high-consumption month of Jan 2024 is €2.91/kg expected again. Conclusion: Despite the start of holidays with subdued demand, the supply is only able to cover the demand from the slaughterhouses to a limited extent. Fresh meat for grilling is in demand; Processing goods cause sales difficulties.According to the results of the livestock census, the supply of slaughter pigs will not increase in the coming months, but will tend to decrease. That gives hope!

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The continued low supply of pork from live supply and cold store stocks remains insufficient for summer demand despite the holiday season. Although the high price level achieved so far is slowing down, it does not prevent the trend from pointing upwards. A further low supply of live animals is expected for the near future.

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