07.
01.26
Market in a tight grip: supply exceeds demand at the start of the year

Schweine News, 07/Jan/2026

Bullish
  • Declining pig supply in the EU opens up medium-term relief potential
  • Easing of ASF cases in Germany
  • Slight reduction in Chinese punitive tariffs creates export prospects
Bearish
  • Holiday-related surpluses weigh heavily on the live market
  • Weak demand on the EU meat market due to seasonal effects and competitive pressure
  • ASF outbreak in Spain exacerbates export problems and directs cheap goods to the domestic market

Germany: V-price 1.45 €/kg (range 1.45 - 1.60 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter figures have not yet been published(previous week: 795,157) The slaughter weights have also not yet been published. In the previous week, they were 98.1 kg.

The pre-registrations for the current week amount to 321,000 (previous week: 272,000)

The ISN auction on Tue, 06.01.2026 took place without trading, as trading activity is suspended around the holidays.

The V-price is for the period from 08.01.2026 to 14.01.2026has been set at € 1.45/kg within a range of € 1.45 - € 1.60/kg .

Market and price development in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , comparably calculated prices fell by 5 ct in the 2nd week of 2026 to €1.33/kg.

In Belgium, prices in the 2nd week of 2026 remained unchanged at € 1.36/kg.

In the Netherlands , prices in the 2nd week of 2026 are unchanged at €1.40/kg.

In France/Brittany , comparable prices fell by 2 ct in the 2nd week of 2026 and stood at €1.65/kg.

In Italy, prices in the 2nd week of 2026 remained unchanged at €2.10/kg .

In Spain, the comparable price in the 2nd week of 2026 remained unchanged at € 1.39/kg.

USA: with a dollar exchange rate of 1.17 $ = 1.00 € , producer prices are currently around 1.25 €/kg and have therefore fallen slightly compared to the pre-Christmas period. The US pig market was characterized by ample supply around Christmas and the turn of the year, as slaughter numbers and production volumes were at least at the previous year's level overall and, although breeding sow numbers declined slightly, piglet numbers remained high. Although there were lower slaughter volumes in the short term due to public holidays, these were made up for immediately after the festive period. Domestic demand was stable as is usual for the season, with a good decline in the retail and processing sectors during the Christmas period, but without any noticeable growth impetus overall. Per capita consumption trended sideways to slightly downwards, which did not provide any additional relief for the market. Exports were a key pillar of the market, in particular the very strong demand from Mexico and stable exports to Japan and South Korea, while China played a subordinate role. In regional terms, the trend of a slight increase in pig production in the Midwest continued, while it continued to decline in south-eastern states such as North Carolina.

Brazil: Current producer prices are the equivalent of € 1.78/kg and have remained stable compared to the pre-Christmas period, adjusted for exchange rate effects. Overall, the Brazilian pig market was very robust and well balanced at the end of the year around Christmas and the turn of the year. Production was at a record level in 2025, with the additional supply being absorbed by both lively domestic demand and strong growth in exports. Christmas business in particular ensured seasonally high demand in retail and processing, while the market calmed down as planned after the holidays. Exports reached new highs, driven primarily by a sharp rise in demand from the Philippines, Japan and other Asian and Latin American markets, while China lost ground overall.

China: Prices in China rose slightly last week to the equivalent of €1.91/kg on the spot market. Around Christmas and the turn of the year, the Chinese pig market was characterized by generally calm but structurally tense market activity. Despite the usual seasonal demand stimulus, consumption remained subdued as end-of-year business was weaker and alternative protein sources gained market share. At the same time, supply was high due to large pig herds, high slaughter weights and a continued increase in production, meaning that seasonal effects on demand were quickly absorbed. Regional differences played a role: while there was a slight upturn in the north in the short term, demand in the south slowed considerably after the traditional curing business was concluded. Import volumes continued to fall, as the domestic market was well supplied and foreign goods became less important. Government measures such as reserve purchases and the politically driven reduction of breeding sows underline the fact that market stabilization and supply adjustment are currently key issues in the Chinese pig sector.

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Conclusion
The slaughter pig market is starting the new year with noticeable price pressure. Holiday-related surpluses are weighing on the market and demand in the meat trade remains subdued. Sales in the EU in particular are suffering from additional competition from cheap imported goods as a result of the ASF outbreak in Spain and weak third-country exports. Sow marketing is sluggish and there is a lack of impetus from the industry. The piglet market is largely stable, with prices remaining at the previous week's level. The feed market remains quiet at the start of the year with no significant price movements.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The market situation is currently determined by a combination of unfavorable factors. Seasonally weak demand is being met by additional supply volumes from the EU internal market, which is increasing the pressure on prices. At the same time, external economic influences such as punitive tariffs and animal diseases are exacerbating the competitive situation. A positive factor is the decreasing number of ASF cases in Germany, which provides more planning security in the medium term. In the future, the declining EU supply offers opportunities for price recoveries, provided that surpluses are quickly reduced and exports gain momentum. However, it is currently difficult to predict when a recovery will set in and the current price slump once again highlights the difficult situation. Hopes are currently pinned on a regionalization agreement, like the one Spain has concluded with China. This could relieve the market.

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