02.
08.23
Average price unchanged but range open wide to the downside

Schweine News, 08/02/2023

Bullish
  • persistent small live supply
  • Meat supply remains limited
Bearish
  • Meat sales are sluggish
  • Weak (barbecue) demand due to the weather

Germany: V price 2.50 €/ kg (range 2.40 – 2.50 €/kg)The weekly slaughter figures are lower at 652,591 pigs ( previous week 694,212) , the slaughter weights remain comparatively low at 96.9 kg . With 260,300 pigs (previous week 242,100), the pre-registrations remain at an unchanged low level. At the ISN auction on Tue, 01 Aug.In 2023, an average price of €2.56/kg or -2 ct/kg was achieved at the pre-auction in a range of €2.56 to €2.56/kg. The V price has been set at €2.50/kg in a range of €2.40 to €2.50/kg for the period from August 2nd, 2023 to August 9th, 2023. ASF : As of July 27, 2023, 5,489 ASF infected wild boars in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg have been officially confirmed. The joy that no cases have occurred in some restricted zones in Brandenburg for more than 8 months came too early. Now new finds have appeared again. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark, the comparably calculated prices of €2.04/kg were repeatedly retained unchanged in the 31st week of 2023. In Belgium, the prices in the 31st week of 2023 will remain unchanged at €2.33/kg .In the Netherlands, the prices were reduced by -7 ct/kg in the 31st week of 2023 with a comparable calculation of €2.31/kg . In France/Brittany, prices have been reduced by -1.5 ct/kg to €2.338/kg. Battle numbers remain low at 349,128; but weather-related demand is weak. In Italy , the listings in the 31st week of 2023 have remained constant for the first time in weeks. The supply is sufficient for the demand. The holiday season has passed its peak. In Spain, the prices in the 30th week of 2023 remain unchanged at a comparable €2.64/ kg for around 4 months. A scarce living supply with limited sales opportunities at home and abroad are the two decisive factors. In the USA/IOWA, prices continued to rise to €2.09/kg.Brazil: Average producer prices have risen again to €1.54/kg . The demand at the turn of the month with new wage and salary payments stimulates demand. The live supply remains seasonally limited. Pork exports to China (50%) have lost momentum. China: Prices stabilize at €2.34/kg. The Sep. 23 rates are traded at the equivalent of €2.89/kg. Only for the high-consumption month of Jan 2024 is €2.97/kg expected again. The drop in prices is mainly due to weak demand due to income. Conclusion: The vacation time in some federal states is coming to an end. But the weather dampens the (barbecue) demand. Processing goods cause sales difficulties.There are increasing signs that the price peak has been reached.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The difficult sales situation in the meat sector is causing considerable pressure on pork prices. Bad weather and the ongoing holiday season as well as consumer prices that have risen due to inflation are the main causes. Nevertheless, the living supply remains manageably small.

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