09.
08.23
Prices stable at €1.40/kg

Schweine News, 08/09/2023

Bullish
  • upcoming barbecue weather
  • the end of the vacation/holiday season
  • low cold store inventories
  • Limited live supply
Bearish
  • slowing demand due to inflation
  • Price cuts in neighboring exporting countries

Germany: V price €2.40/ kg (range €2.40 – €2.40/kg)The weekly slaughter figures are lower at 671,544 pigs ( previous week 652,591) , the slaughter weights remain somewhat higher at 97.2 kg . With 258,500 pigs (previous week 260,300), the pre-registrations remain at an unchanged low level. At the ISN auction on Tue, 08 Aug.In 2023, an average price of €2.47/kg or -9 ct/kg was achieved at the pre-auction in a range of €2.45 to €2.49/kg. The V price has been set at €2.40/kg for the period from 08/09/2023 to 08/16/2023 in a range of €2.40 -2.40/kg. ASF : As of August 4th, 2023, 5,509 ASF infected wild boars in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg have been officially confirmed. The ASF finds are increasing again. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark, the comparably calculated prices of €2.04/kg were repeatedly retained unchanged in the 32nd week of 2023. In Belgium, the prices will be reduced by 8 ct/kg in the 32nd week of 2023 at €2.25/kg . In the Netherlands, prices were increased in the 32ndKW 2023 reduced by -3 ct/kg with a comparable calculated 2.28 €/kg . In France/Brittany, prices have been reduced by -6 ct/kg to €2.278/kg. Battle numbers remain low at 351,349; but weather-related demand is weak. In Italy, the listings in the 32nd week of 2023 have been increased again by +5 ct/kg . The supply is not sufficient for the demand. The holiday season has passed its peak. In Spain, the prices remain in the 32nd week of 2023 with a comparable €2.62/ kg for the first time in around 4 months by -2 ct/kg. A scarce living supply with limited sales opportunities at home and abroad are the two decisive factors. In the USA/IOWA, prices have fallen to €2.01/kg. demand decreases. Low slaughter numbers, slaughter weights and low cold store stocks keep the price of cuts (barbecue) high in the barbecue season.For Oct.-23 the stock market prices are still at 1.70 €/kg. Brazil: Average producer prices have fallen again to €1.51/kg . The demand at the turn of the month with new wage and salary payments stimulates demand. The live supply remains seasonally limited. Pork exports to China (50%) have lost momentum. China: Prices rise to €2.49/kg. The state is supporting the market with renewed stock purchases The Sep. 23 courses are traded at the equivalent of €2.89/kg. Only for the consumption-intensive month of Jan 2024 is it again expected to be €2.93/kg. The price weakness is mainly due to weak demand due to income. Conclusion: the forthcoming barbecue weather and the end of the holiday season raise expectations of better sales, but consumer prices, which have risen due to inflation, are putting pressure on meat consumption. The ongoing plant holidays in the processing plants are slowing down demand.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

After the previous price reduction, a price level has been reached that takes into account the limited supply of live meat and the prospects for somewhat higher meat sales. The forthcoming barbecue weather and the holiday season that is increasingly coming to an end mean that price increases do not seem impossible. But inflation-driven consumer prices remain a constraining factor.

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