08.
10.25
Pig price falls sharply - tariffs and oversupply put pressure on the market

Schweine News, 08/Oct/2025

Bullish
  • EU-wide trend towards price stabilization
  • Holiday backlog only creates more pressure in the short term
  • Drop in feed prices reduces production costs
Bearish
  • Meat market still without sufficient demand stimulus
  • Chinese punitive tariffs hamper exports and burden sales markets
  • Holiday-related backlogs significantly increase the live supply in the short term

Germany: V-price 1.70 €/kg (range 1.70 - 1.77 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter figures are 635,693 (previous week: 747,229) and a carcass weight of 98.4 kg. In the previous week, they were 98.2 kg.

The pre-registrations for the current week amount to 283,300 (previous week: 278,600)

The ISN auction on Tue, 07.10.2025 did not deliver a result.

The V-price is for the period from 09.10.2025 to 15.10.2025has been set at €1.70/kg within a range of €1.70 - €1.77/kg .

Market and price development in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , comparably calculated prices remained unchanged at €1.73/kg in week 41, 2025.

In Belgium, there was no change in the 41st week of 2025. The price is therefore again at € 1.58/kg.

In the Netherlands , prices remained around €1. 68/kg in week 41, 2025.

In France/Brittany , comparable prices fell by 2 ct to €1.78/kg in week 41.

In Italy, prices fell by 2 ct to €2.66/kg in week 41 of 2025.

In Spain, the comparable price fell by 4 ct in week 41 of 2025 and is now lower at €1.96/kg.

USA: at a dollar exchange rate of 1.16 $ = 1.00 € , producer prices are currently around 1.87 €/kg and have therefore fallen by around 5 ct compared to the previous week. Last week, the US hog market was somewhat weaker overall. In terms of cuts, the focus was primarily on bellies and necks: both lost noticeably in value. Slaughter figures were up on the previous week and also slightly up on the previous year, which indicates that supply remains high and put pressure on the market accordingly. Despite significantly higher tariffs, US pork exports to China remained stable in July in terms of volume, but were well below the previous year's level for the entire period from January to July due to earlier tariff increases.

Brazil: Current producer prices are the equivalent of €1.80/kg and have fallen slightly in the last week. Nevertheless, the Brazilian market is stable overall. Exports reached a record volume in September, driven by strong demand from Asia (especially the Philippines), while China saw a decline in sales. Lower feed costs and a balanced supply significantly supported producers' margins. Domestically, the start of the month has led to a revival in demand, while the economic environment (especially high interest rates) continues to put the brakes on investment.

China: Prices in China are currently at the equivalent of €2.05/kg on the spot market and are currently stable. In the past few days around China's "Golden Week", there were initially local price increases as slaughterhouses and traders purchased additional quantities before the start of the holiday. Many market participants expected this to stimulate demand in the short term. However, this largely failed to materialize. The high supply and heavier animals were met with only a brief increase in domestic demand, which was weak overall. After the public holiday, demand quickly fell again, meaning that the market remained significantly oversupplied despite the effects of the public holiday.

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Conclusion
On the slaughter pig market, a large supply of live animals met with restrained demand from slaughterhouses. The public holiday on October 3 led to marketing backlogs, which are now encountering an oversupplied market. Meat marketing remains sluggish and export activities are additionally burdened by punitive tariffs. The piglet market is also quiet with weak demand, particularly for free lots. Despite regionally stable EU prices, the market in Germany showed a significantly weaker trend.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The significant drop in prices this week is the result of a high live supply coupled with weak demand. Slaughter companies took advantage of the holiday backlog and the tight market situation to exert massive pressure. Producers were barely able to counter this. What happens next depends largely on the rapid clearance of surpluses and possible impetus in the meat business. A further phase of weakness cannot be ruled out, but stabilization is possible if supply declines, as the current price drop is also perceived as surprisingly sharp.

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