25.
10.23
Prices remain constant

Schweine News, 10/25/2023

Bullish
  • .
Bearish
  • increasing life supply in autumn
  • continued weak demand for meat
  • insufficient export

Germany: V- price 2.10 €/ kg (range 2.10 – 2.10 €/kg)The weekly slaughter numbers were lower at 730,771 pigs ( previous week 748,792 ), the slaughter weights remained at 98.0 kg . Pre-registrations have fallen slightly at 270,000 pigs (previous week 281,900) . The ISN auction on Tuesday October 24th, 2023 did not take place again due to a lack of demand.The V price has been set at €2.10/kg in a range of €2.10 - €2.10/kg for the period from October 26th, 2023 to November 1st, 2023. ASF : As of October 24, 2023, 5,567 ASF-infected wild boars have been officially confirmed in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg. In September 2023, only 15 ASF cases were reported. Market and price development in selected competing countries: In Denmark , the comparable prices will be increased again for the first time to €1.89/kg in the 43rd week of 2023. (Reason: short vacation effect) In Belgium, the prices in the 43rd week of 2023 remained unchanged with comparable calculated prices of 2.07 €/kg . In the Netherlands the prices are in the 43rd.Week 2023 with comparable calculated prices of €2.02/kg also remained unchanged. In France/Brittany prices have fallen by a further -5 cents/kg to €1.88/ kg . The number of battles rose to 354,389; Slaughter weights are slightly higher at 95.33 kg. In Italy, the prices were only slightly lower in the 43rd week of 2023. Supply remains tight, not least caused by the ASP outages. In Spain, prices will be reduced by a further -3 ct/kg in the 43rd week of 2023 with a comparable €2.29/ kg. The price-related sales difficulties at home and abroad are forcing prices to be adjusted. In the USA/IOWA, producer prices fell again to €1.49/kg. The number of battles has increased again. The unit prices are inconsistent. For the new front month of December 23, the stock market prices are at 1.39 €/kg. The USDA expects production and sales to increase in 2024, but market experts are less certain.Brazil: Average producer prices have fallen back to €1.59/kg . Demand at home and abroad has lost some momentum. Exports are under strong competitive pressure from North America. The live supply increases slightly depending on the season. China: Prices have stabilized at €2.88/kg . Imports have decreased. Only for the consumption-intensive month of January 2024 is €2.89/kg expected again. Stable production is expected for 2024 with reduced demand after Chinese New Year. China will soon allow Russian pork deliveries from ASF-free regions. Conclusion: The current autumn period is usually characterized by an increasing supply of pork with restrained demand due to the phasing out of grilling activities. The slaughter numbers are stabilizing at over 740,000 per week. Pre-registrations also remain at a higher level than in the summer. Prices are under pressure. Hopes are focused on an increase in processed goods.It will still be a while before the pre-Christmas season stimulates sales.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The autumn live supply remains more than sufficient for the restrained demand. Export opportunities in the EU internal market and third country markets are significantly restricted due to ASF and significant price differences.

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