09.
11.22
V-prize held. but the range is only between 1.85 and 1.90 €/kg

Schweine News, 11/09/2022

Bullish
  • Limited expectations for pre-holiday sales
  • persistently low live supply
Bearish
  • weak meat demand
  • muted processing business
  • insufficient export

Germany: V price 1.90 €/kg (range 1.85 – 1.90 €/kg) - The weekly slaughter figures are around 674,019 pigs ( previous week 770,698 ) due to the public holiday; slaughter weights have increased to 97.8 kg . The pre- registrations remain somewhat smaller at 282,500 pigs (previous week 287,400 ).When reselling the cuts to food retailers, processors and for export, the average prices remained unchanged at €2.22/kg . At the ISN auction on Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 , once again none of the pigs offered were sold. There was no auction on Tue, Nov. 1st. The V price is unchanged for the period from November 10, 2022 to November 16, 2022 at €1.90/kg; the range goes from 1.85 to 1.90 €/kg. ASP : As of 08.Nov. In 2022, 4,452 wild boar infected with ASF were officially confirmed in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg. Some of the animal disease areas had to be expanded due to new outbreaks. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark , prices in the 45th week of 2022 have again remained unchanged at a comparable calculated €1.85/kg.In Belgium , the prices in the 45th week of 2022 will be maintained at the reduced level of the two previous weeks. Meat sales remain difficult. In the Netherlands , the prices in the 45th week are also maintained at the lowered level of the two previous weeks. In France/Brittany , prices fell again by -5 ct/kg to around €1.85/kg. Due to the holiday, the number of battles has turned out to be smaller. Slaughter weights stagnate at around 95 kg. In Italy , the listings in the 45th week of 2022 have been retained unchanged at €2.07/kg . The domestic live supply is called up to cover demand, but the meat market is under price pressure from imports. In Spain , the prices in the 45th week of 2022 fell by -2 ct/kg to a comparable €2.17/ kg. The domestic supply of live animals is increasing, even animals for slaughter are imported.but the high Spanish price level makes it difficult to sell meat compared to the offers of the EU competition at home and abroad. In the USA/IOWA , prices have fallen further to the equivalent of € 1.98 /kg . Battle numbers have increased slightly. Part prices remain unchanged at a reduced level. For the front month Dec.-2022, the forward rates are quoted at €1.88/kg . Brazil: Producer prices have fallen to €1.76/kg on average with declining REAL. Prices have fallen in the high-price provinces. Demand is constrained by cheap poultry meat. Exports to several Asian importing countries support hog prices. China: Prices have continued to rise to the equivalent of € 5.15/kg . The exchange rate has weakened somewhat. However, the forward rates for the month of Nov-22 are trading at €4.48/kg.In the spring months of 2023, prices are expected to fall further to €3.60/kg with increasing supply and the usual seasonal decrease in demand. Conclusion: meat sales remain difficult. Sales of fresh meat are still going well, but processed goods are difficult to accommodate despite ongoing preparations for the Christmas business. Maintaining stable prices is only possible with a low living supply. The market situation in Europe remains tense.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The restrained meat sales dictate the low price margins in the livestock market. The export business of earlier years is missing. The expectations of a demand-boosting Christmas business are rather subdued. Only a persistently low supply of pigs for slaughter is still the support for stable prices.

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