21.
12.22
Rates unchanged through 1st week of Jan

Schweine News, 12/21/2022

Bullish
  • limited offer
  • declining battle weights
  • continued receptiveness of the slaughterhouses
  • finer cuts of meat are in high demand
Bearish
  • Inflation limits consumption
  • insufficient third country exports

Germany: V price 2.00 €/kg (range 2.00 – 2.00 €/kg) - the weekly slaughter figures are higher with 808,947 pigs ( previous week 792,499 ); however, the slaughter weights have decreased to 96.5 kg . Advance registrations remain repeatedly low at 239,500 hogs (previous week 252,700 ).When reselling the cuts to food retailers, processors and for export, the average prices have repeatedly remained at €2.35/kg . At the ISN auction on Fri, Dec. 16, 2022 , an average price of €2.09/kg (+1 ct/kg to the pre-auction) was achieved in a range of €2.06 to €2.10/kg. The V price for the period from December 22nd, 2022 to January 4th , 2023 remained at €2.00/kg; the range is from 2.00 to 2.00 €/kg. ASF : As of December 19, 2022, 4,669 ASF infected wild boars in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg have been officially confirmed. An end is not yet in sight. Market and price development in selected competitor countries: In Denmark , prices in the 51st week of 2022 have repeatedly stopped at a comparable calculated €1.88/kg.In Belgium , the prices in the 51st week of 2022 remained unchanged at €1.92/kg. In the Netherlands , the prices remain stable in the 51st week with a comparable calculated €1.88/kg. In France/Brittany , prices remain unchanged at €1.81/kg . The slaughter figures are reduced to 372,827 pigs. Slaughter weights are slightly lower at just under 96 kg. In Italy , the listings in the 50th week of 2022 fell slightly at €2.0/kg . The Christmas business is dropping. In Spain , the prices in the 51st week of 2022 remained at a comparable €2.16/ kg. The domestic supply of live animals is supplemented by imports of animals for slaughter. In the USA/IOWA , prices have fallen further to the equivalent of € 1.68 /kg .Battle numbers are falling a bit, but the prices for parts fell across the board. The pre-Christmas business is over. For the new front month February-2022, the futures prices on the stock exchange are again at €1.75/kg; Ascending trend. Brazil: Producer prices have increased to €1.72/kg on average with weaker REAL. Domestic demand remains high, but export business has slowed noticeably. China: Prices have fallen significantly to the equivalent of € 4.27/kg . The exchange rate has weakened again. The forward rates for the month of Jan.-2023 are only traded at €3.25/kg. After the Chinese New Year celebrations at the end of January 2023, prices should be around a little over 3 €/kg according to stock market prices, with increasing supply and seasonally declining demand. Conclusion: The end of the pre-Christmas business is slowing down a further rise in prices, despite the moderate supply of living things.Quotations remain unchanged through week 1-Jan-23.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The scarce live supply with reduced slaughter weights limits the meat supply, so that the demand is just covered. Sales of the more valuable fresh meat parts are quite brisk. No supply backlog is expected between the holidays. The current price quotations remain unchanged into the 1st week of Jan.

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