15.
10.25
More slaughtering and tough trade characterize the week

Schweine News, 15/Oct/2025

Bullish
  • Overhangs slowly reduce
  • Seasonal increase in meat consumption in the fall
  • Stable to slightly increasing demand in the food retail sector
Bearish
  • Price decline in neighboring EU countries, the USA and China
  • Exports to third countries remain difficult
  • Little impetus from the gastronomy sector

Germany: V-price 1.70 €/kg (range 1.70 - 1.75 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter figures are 740,802 (previous week: 635,693) and a carcass weight of 98.8 kg. In the previous week, they were 98.4 kg.

The pre-registrations for the current week amount to 285,800 (previous week: 283,300)

The ISN auction on Tue, 14.10.2025 was at a price of 1.71 €/kg in a range of 1.705 - 1.705 €/kg).

The V-price is for the period from 16.10.2025 to 22.10.2025has been set at € 1.70/kg within a range of € 1.70 - 1.75/kg .

Market and price development in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , the comparably calculated prices fell by 10 ct in week 42 of 2025 and have now remained at €1.63/kg .

In Belgium, there was a drop of 11 ct in week 42, 2025. The price is therefore once again at €1.47/kg.

In the Netherlands , prices fell by 10 ct in week 42, 2025 and now stand at €1. 58/kg.

In France/Brittany , comparable prices fell by 5 ct to €1.73/kg in week 42.

In Italy, prices fell by 5 ct to €2.61/kg in week 42 of 2025.

In Spain, the comparable price fell by 6 ct in week 42 of 2025 and is now lower at €1.90/kg.

USA: at a dollar exchange rate of 1.16 $ = 1.00 € , producer prices are currently around 1.76 €/kg and have therefore fallen by around 11 ct compared to the previous week as demand weakened. At the same time, the slaughter supply was higher, the number of animals processed exceeded the previous year's figures and the animals weighed more on average. Domestic demand, particularly for cuts such as hams and loins, declined. Demand on the export markets, particularly in China, remained subdued, burdened by overproduction and trade barriers.

Brazil: Current producer prices are the equivalent of €1.76/kg and have fallen slightly in the last week. Nevertheless, the Brazilian market is stable overall. Last week, the Brazilian pig market was dominated by reports of new record highs in export volumes. Brazil reported a sharp increase in pork exports for September compared to the previous year. Increased international demand kept many producers in the market, although domestic demand remained subdued due to weakening purchasing power.

China: Prices in China have fallen significantly in the last week and are at the equivalent of €1.98/kg on the spot market. This is a drop of 7 ct (the exchange rate is virtually unchanged). China is still facing a massive oversupply of pigs, which is why the government is urging large producers to reduce their herds and lower slaughter weights. The authorities want to stabilize the market and stem losses in the industry. At the same time, domestic demand remains surprising after the Golden Week holidays. In foreign trade, the conflict with the EU is causing tensions: Beijing has imposed high anti-dumping duties on European pork. As a result, imports from Europe are likely to fall significantly, which should ease the market.

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Conclusion
The slaughter pig market remains weak after the sharp dip, with ample live supply and tough demand. Prices are under pressure across the EU, while the first signs of stabilization are visible in Germany towards the middle of the week and slaughterings have been increased, with surpluses slowly being reduced. The meat trade remains challenging, showing slight improvements in sales at a lower level. The piglet market is characterized by restrained willingness to buy and falling prices. Export opportunities to third countries remain limited.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

In the short term, the combination of an increased slaughter rate and a lower level suggests a cautious calming of the market, albeit without any clear impetus for a broad recovery. The further reduction of surpluses, the development of slaughter weights and an upturn in trade and exports will be decisive. The continuing pressure in the piglet market points to more cautious restocking and limits the potential. The base scenario is a sideways trend for the time being, while positive surprises should come primarily from demand stimuli. However, the lower prices in the relevant neighboring countries mean that the overall pressure remains. The fall in prices in the USA and China also suggest an overall oversupply at present.

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