Christmas business supports pig market despite EU-wide pressure
Germany: V-price 1.60 €/kg (range 1.60 - 1.60 €/kg)
The weekly slaughter figures amounted to 795,157 (previous week: 783,010) The slaughter weights were 97.8 kg. In the previous week, they were 98.1 kg.
The pre-registrations for the current week amount to 272,000 (previous week: 273,400)
The ISN auction on Tue, 17.12.2025 took place without trading, as trading activity is suspended around the holidays.
The V-price is for the period from 18.12.2025 to 24.12.2025has been set at € 1.60/kg within a range of € 1.60 - € 1.60/kg .
Market and price development in selected competitor countries:
In Denmark , comparably calculated prices fell by 5 ct in the 51st week of 2025 and stand at €1.41/kg.
In Belgium, prices fell by 4 ct in the 51st week of 2025 to €1.36/kg.
In the Netherlands , prices remained unchanged in week 51 of 2025 at €1.40/kg.
In France/Brittany , comparable prices fell by 2 ct in week 51 and are at €1.65/kg.
In Italy prices in the 51st week of 2025 fell by 5 ct and are now at 2.15 €/kg remained.
In Spain the comparable price in the 51st week of 2025 fell by 8 ct and stands at 1.39 €/kg is now lower.
USA: at a dollar exchange rate of 1.17 $ = 1.00 € , producer prices are currently around 1.31 €/kg and have thus remained stable compared to the previous week. Last week, the US hog market was characterized by high supply, especially in the Midwest (including Iowa and Minnesota), which is reflected in high slaughter numbers and rising slaughter weights. Slaughter plants were working close to capacity and benefited from the market situation, while the production side remained under pressure. Domestic demand was stable for seasonal reasons, driven by the Christmas business with ham and processed products. On the export side, Mexico remained the most important and very receptive sales market, while China remained weak and political and trade policy uncertainties persisted. Politically, the focus was primarily on trade issues and discussions about regulatory framework conditions (including animal husbandry requirements). Overall, the market is well supplied in the short term, with cautiously optimistic expectations for stabilization in the new year.
Brazil: Current producer prices are the equivalent of € 1.74/kg and have remained stable compared to the previous week after adjusting for exchange rate effects. Overall, the Brazilian pig market was stable and well balanced last week. The increased production level was absorbed both by lively domestic demand in the run-up to the holidays and by continued strong exports. The broad positioning of export markets had a particularly positive effect, as Brazil is less dependent on individual buyer countries. The feed situation remained favorable, which significantly improved the profitability of pig farmers and ensured positive market sentiment. The animal health situation remained calm, as Brazil remains free of African swine fever and isolated regional cases of the disease had no impact on the national market. Overall, the sector is entering the new year with cautious optimism.
China: Prices in China rose slightly last week to the equivalent of €1.85/kg on the spot market. Last week, the Chinese pig market was clearly characterized by oversupply, while demand only increased moderately despite seasonal impulses. Production remains high, as stocks are only being reduced slowly following earlier expansions, which is increasing marketing pressure, particularly on smaller farms. Government agencies are attempting to take countermeasures, including by purchasing meat for reserves and by imposing requirements to reduce the number of breeding sows, although the effect of these measures is likely to be delayed. Animal diseases such as African swine fever are currently playing a role locally, but are under control nationwide and only have a limited impact on supply. In foreign trade, lower tariffs on EU pork and regional import restrictions in the event of ASF cases have provided a little more planning security without noticeably relieving the domestic market. Overall, the market remains tense in the short term, with continued pressure on producers and only limited prospects of a rapid recovery.
Conclusion
The market for pigs for slaughter is lively at the end of the year, with regional differences in marketing. The high supply meets seasonally strong demand from slaughtering, processing and food retailers. Slaughter numbers are rising, while slaughter weights continue to fall. The piglet market remains balanced with stable prices. The German market situation remains relatively stable for the time being, while the EU market is tense due to the ASF outbreak in Spain and import pressure. Although China has lowered tariffs, they are still up to 20% for the next five years, which will not completely relieve the market.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Despite firm Christmas business, the situation remains tense. The relief provided by lower tariffs on EU pork imports to China could boost exports in the medium term, although an actual effect before the Chinese New Year is questionable. The decline in slaughter weights indicates an increasing willingness to buy. At the same time, increased volumes offered throughout the EU from Spain are weighing on the market. Due to the ASF outbreak, the price has once again fallen sharply, which is placing a heavy burden on the domestic market in the EU. A further drop in domestic prices cannot be ruled out due to falling prices in neighboring countries.
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