20.
08.25
International shifts stimulate export opportunities

Schweine News, 20/Aug/2025

Bullish
  • Declining live supply due to heat
  • Expected upturn in demand after the end of the vacations
  • EU export growth, especially to Asia
Bearish
  • Currently subdued meat sales in Germany
  • Declining prices in important EU markets (Spain, France)
  • Strong euro

Germany: V-price 1.95 €/kg (range 1.95 - 2.00 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter figures are still pending (previous week: 734,065). The slaughter weights in the previous week were: 97.6 kg.

The pre-registrations for the current week amount to 258 , 800 (previous week: 252,800)

The ISN auction on Tue, 19.08.2025 delivered a result of 2.00 €/kg in a range of 2.00 - 2.00 €/kg.

The V-price is for the period from 21.08.2025 to 27.08.2025has been set at € 1.95/kg within a range of € 1.95 - 2.00/kg .

Market and price development in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , the comparably calculated prices are unchanged at €1.90/kg in CW 34, 2025.

In Belgium, there is no change in week 34, 2025. The price therefore remains at €1.75/kg.

In the Netherlands , prices will remain unchanged at €1. 89/kg in week 34, 2025.

In France/Brittany , comparable prices have fallen by 2 ct and now stand at €1.99/kg.

In Italy, prices remained unchanged at €2.50/kg in week 34, 2025.

In Spain, the comparable price fell by 4 ct in week 34, 2025 and is now lower at €2.23/kg.

USA/IOWA: at a dollar exchange rate of 1.16 $ = 1.00 € , producer prices are currently around 2.03 €/kg. US pork exports have recently declined: sales of 21,200 tons were well below the previous week and 4-week level, while exports were slightly weaker at 27,000 tons. According to the USDA, production will be reduced in 2025 due to lower slaughter numbers, but the export forecast will be increased at the same time. Due to scarcer availability, pig prices are expected to rise until 2026.

Brazil: In Brazil, demand for pork is picking up again, causing prices to rise and producers to benefit from lower feed costs. At the same time, exports are running at full speed, increasingly supported by new sales markets instead of heavy dependence on China. Industry representatives are therefore talking about a more stable and sustainable market position, which should also give the industry a tailwind for the rest of the year. Current producer prices are the equivalent of €1.78/kg.

China: Prices in China are currently at €2.21/kg for the front month and have therefore fallen further. In addition to seasonal pressure, prices are also under the influence of China's own high stocks. The government therefore wants to reduce the number of breeding sows by one million animals.

ASF: In NRW, 93 infected wild boars have been detected since the ASF outbreak two months ago, with further suspected cases pending. Thanks to the rapid construction of fences, the disease has so far remained confined to restricted zone II. The authorities are now focusing on intensive hunting in the core area in order to drastically reduce the wild boar population and eradicate the virus in the long term.

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Conclusion
The slaughter pig market is balanced with stable prices in the week under review. The supply of pigs ready for slaughter is declining due to the weather, but is sufficient to meet the restrained demand from slaughterhouses. Marketing is proceeding steadily, but there is still no impetus from the meat market. The piglet market is also stable with unchanged prices and sufficient supply. International trade in pork is mixed, while EU exports are increasing, exports to third countries remain calm and are declining in some cases.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The stagnating trend on the slaughter pig market reflects the usual seasonal market situation in midsummer. Lower slaughter weights with stable animal numbers and a balanced relationship between supply and demand suggest that the sideways movement will continue. At a global level, there are signs of a shift in trade flows, whereby the EU could benefit from supply bottlenecks in Asia. In the medium term, seasonal demand stimuli and an upturn in exports could provide new market momentum. Favorable feed costs will have a cost-reducing effect.

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