24.
09.25
Export barriers continue to weigh on the European pig market

Schweine News, 24/Sep/2025

Bullish
  • Expected demand stimulus from October festivals and the turn of the month
  • Decline in sow numbers in many EU countries
Bearish
  • China's punitive tariffs burden exports of European goods
  • Weak meat sales within the EU increase price pressure
  • Strong euro

Germany: V-price 1.85 €/kg (range 1.85 - 1.85 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter numbers are 741,378 (previous week: 741,350). The slaughter weights are 98.2 kg (previous week: 98.1 kg).

The pre-registrations for the current week amount to 278,600 (previous week: 271,700)

The ISN auction on Tue, 23.09.2025 delivered a result of 1.86 €/kg in a range of 1.855 - 1.86 €/kg.

The V-price is for the period from 25.09.2025 to 01.10.2025has been set at € 1.85/kg within a range of € 1.85 - 1.85/kg .

Market and price development in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , the comparably calculated prices fell by 10 ct in week 39 of 2025 and stand at €1.73/kg.

In Belgium, there was a drop of 13 ct in week 39, 2025. The price thus falls to €1.58/kg.

In the Netherlands, prices fell by 10 ct in week 39, 2025, to €1. 73/kg.

In France/Brittany , comparable prices fell by 3 ct to €1.82/kg in week 39.

In Italy, prices rose by 3 ct to €2.67/kg in week 39 of 2025.

In Spain, the comparable price fell by 4 ct in week 39 of 2025 and is now lower at €2.04/kg.

USA: with a dollar exchange rate of 1.17 $ = 1.00 € , producer prices are currently around 2.01 €/kg. The pig market has recently been stable overall with a slight upward trend. Slaughter numbers remained high and increased slightly week-on-week, accompanied by a further increase in average slaughter weights in Iowa and Minnesota.

Brazil: Current producer prices are the equivalent of €1.84/kg and fell for the first time last week after a long period of stability. The Brazilian pig market came under slight pressure last week. Traders and slaughterhouses acted cautiously, as consumer purchasing power weakened towards the end of the month and poultry still has a price advantage despite price increases. On the export side, however, things were stable: the Philippines in particular bought large quantities, while China remained cautious. Overall, strong foreign demand is ensuring that the mood among producers remains cautiously optimistic despite a slight price correction.

China: Prices in China are currently at the equivalent of €2.02/kg on the spot market and have fallen again compared to the previous week. November is also at the equivalent of €2.02/kg, while January is higher at €2.12/kg. Last week, China called on the major pig producers to reduce their production. The background to this is a massive oversupply coupled with weak demand, which has put prices under severe pressure. The authorities want to ensure that fewer breeding sows are kept and slaughtering is reduced. In addition, loans for capacity expansions are to be made more difficult and subsidies cut in order to slow down production growth.

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Conclusion
The slaughter pig market has stabilized after the recent declines and is moving sideways at the lowered level. Animals ready for slaughter can be marketed promptly for the most part, even if demand for meat within the EU remains subdued. The piglet market is weak, with the extensive supply meeting with restrained demand and leading to falling prices. At European level, sales remain tense due to China's punitive tariffs and the seasonal increase in live supply.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The current stabilization of the market can be classified as an interim phase. Stimulus could come from a seasonal upturn in demand at the beginning of the month, which will support marketing in the short term. In the medium term, however, weak export opportunities and the subdued domestic economy are likely to have a negative impact. Apart from this, the declining sow herds in many EU countries remain relevant and could reduce future supply. Overall, the market situation remains fragile and is sensitive to political and trade policy influences.

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