Germany:V-price2.20 €/kg (range 2.20 - 2.25 €/kg)
At around .000 pigs (previous week 714,187), the weekly slaughter figures were higher again after the weeks of public holidays, while slaughter weights remained the same at 97.6 kg .
Pre-registrations are slightly lower at 00 pigs (previous week 255,900) .
The ISN auction on Tue, June 18, 2024 brought 2.30 €/kg in a range of 2.30 - 2.31 €/kg.
The V-price for the period from 20.06.2024 to 27.06. 2024 has been set at €2.20/kg in a range of €2.20 - €2.25/kg.
Slaughter pig market in Germany
ASF: As of June 7, 2024, 5,733 ASF-infected wild boars have been detected in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg. An ASF-infected wild boar has been found in Groß-Gerau (northwest of Darmstadt in Hesse). In a 15 km exclusion zone, 72 predominantly small farms with a total of 5,600 animals are affected. Only one farm keeps around 2,000 pigs.
Market and price developments in selected competitor countries:
In Denmark , the comparably calculated prices were reduced by -3 ct/kg to €1.74/kg in CW 25, 2024.
In Belgium, the comparably calculated prices of €2.10/kg remained unchanged in CW 25, 2024.
In the Netherlands , prices in CW 25, 2024 are valued +3 ct/kg higher at comparable prices of €2.15/kg.
In France/Brittany , prices have changed little at €2.03/kg . Slaughter numbers continue to fall to 356,538; slaughter weights are at 96.18 kg.
In Italy, prices fell by a further -1 ct/kg in week 25, 2024. Meat sales remain weak.
In Spain, a further increase of € 2.38/kg in week 25, 2024 reflects the short supply of live cattle. High temperatures reduce weight gains and live supply. Slaughter capacities are not fully utilized, but meat sales remain difficult in view of the high prices.
In the USA/IOWA , producer prices have fallen to the current €1.77/kg. Cut prices have also fallen. Stocks in cold stores are sufficiently high. Slaughter numbers are lower due to the public holidays. Market prices of €2.12/kg are being traded for the summer barbecue season.However, forward prices for Dec. 24 only average €1.58/kg.
Brazil: Producer prices have risen again to an average of €1.55/kg. Production losses due to the floods in Rio Grande do Sul are leading to tighter supplies for domestic and foreign business.
China: Prices have risen abruptly to € 3/kg. The previous reduction in stocks is leading to lower supply. The announcement of import duties on EU pork may still be playing a role. The month of Nov-2024 is traded on the Dalian exchange at prices of around €3.09/kg. Prices are expected to fall to just under €3/kg in Jan-2025.
Conclusion: Despite the low live supply and low cold storage stocks, there is no room for upward price movement so far. Nevertheless, it is expected that price increases will be possible in the near future in view of full slaughter weeks, increasing barbecue activities and the European Football Championship. However, the ASF cases in Hesse and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have contributed to uncertainty.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Expectations of higher pig prices as a result of a possible increase in demand (barbecue, European Football Championships) have so far been disappointed. Recently, the two ASF cases in Hesse and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania have caused uncertainty about further developments.
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