21.
08.24
Average price stable - range opened upwards

Hogs News, 21st / Aug / 2024

Bullish
  • Persistently low live supply
  • Tendency towards smaller slaughter numbers
  • End of holiday/vacation season and coming first of the month with higher demand expectations
Bearish
  • Meat sales remain subdued

Germany:V-price2.00 €/kg (range 2.00 - 2.05 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter numbers have decreased to 705,846 pigs (previous week 716,134), slaughter weights have remained stable at 97.2 kg

Pre-registrations for the current week amount to 262,300 (previous week 264,400 )

The ISN auction on Tue, 20.08.2024 brought just under 2.06 €/kg (2.06 - 2.065 €/kg)

The V-price for the period from 22.08.2024 to 28.08.2024 has been set at 2.00 €/kg in a range of 2.00 - 2.05 €/kg

Slaughter pig market in Germany

ASF: As of Aug. 20, 2024, 5,961 ASF-infected wild boars have been detected in Brandenburg, Saxony, Mecklenburg, Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate. In the meantime, 114 ASF-infected wild boars have been found in Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate. ASF was detected in 9 farms with domestic pigs and the herds were culled.

Market and price developments in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , comparably calculated prices remained unchanged at €1.63/kg in CW 34, 2024.

In Belgium, the comparably calculated prices of €1.95/kg also remained the same in CW 34, 2024.

In the Netherlands , prices in week 34 of 2024 were reduced by -5 ct/kg with comparable prices of €1.90/kg.

In France/Brittany , the comparable prices have been reduced by a further -6 ct/kg to €2.14/kg . Slaughter numbers have risen again to 285,265; slaughter weights are down at 95.60 kg. The school vacations have come to an end; it is hoped that sales will pick up.

In Italy, prices rose by a further +3 ct/kg in week 34, 2024. Demand is still coming from the vacation season. ASF cases reduce supply.

In Spain, the price will remain unchanged at €2. 38/kg in CW 34, 2024. Although the vacation season ensures high domestic sales, the high price level is slowing down exports with a self-sufficiency rate of around 200 %.

In the USA/IOWA , producer prices were set -6 ct/kg lower at € 1.63/kg. The weaker dollar exchange rate contributed to this. Slaughter figures remain at the same high level. Cold store stocks remain low for the time being. Barbecue items remain firm, other cuts have fallen sharply. However, forward prices for Dec. 24 are only averaging €1.56/kg.

Brazil: Producer prices have risen to a converted €1.85/kg due to currency effects. The live supply is only just sufficient to meet the stable domestic demand and the brisk export business (+30 %).

China: Prices have risen further to €3.44/kg. The small supply desired by the government is meeting seasonally rising demand. Slightly rising imports consist mainly of cheap by-products. The month of Nov-2024 is quoted at around €3.10/kg on the Dalian exchange. In March 2025, however, prices of only €2.55/kg are traded.

Conclusion: Average prices have stabilized at €2.00/kg with an increased spread. With the holiday/vacation period coming to an end and with fresh money at the beginning of the month, a future upturn in sales is expected. In neighboring countries, with the exception of Italy, pig prices are predominantly being reduced.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

With the holiday/vacation period coming to an end and fresh money at the beginning of the month, expectations of a better consumer mood are growing. If live supply remains low, this could open up scope for prices to rise. The current increase in spreads can be seen as an initial sign.

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