24.
04.24
Stable pig prices

Hogs News, 24th / Apr / 2024

Bullish
  • Persistently low live supply
  • Approaching barbecue season
  • Low cold store stocks
Bearish
  • Sluggish meat sales

Germany:V-price2.20 €/kg (range 2.20 - 2.20 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter figures were higher at around 730,100 pigs (previous week 691,367), while slaughter weights were lower at 98.0 kg.

Pre-registrations were roughly the same at 258,600 p igs (previous week 260,700) .

The ISN auction on Tue, Apr. 23, 2024 brought an average of €2.27/kg in a range of €2.265 - €2.275/kg.

The V-price for the period from 25.04.2024 to 01.05. 2024 has been set at €2.20/kg in a range of €2.20 - €2.20/kg.

Slaughter pig market in Germany

ASF: As of Apr. 18, 2024, 5,695 ASF-infected wild boars have been detected in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg. China opens borders for cattle, negotiations are still ongoing for pork

Market and price developments in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , comparably calculated prices remained unchanged once again at € 1.81/kg in CW 17, 2024.

In Belgium, the comparably calculated prices of € 2.08/kg also remained unchanged in CW 17, 2024.

In the Netherlands , prices in CW 17, 2024 will remain unchanged at comparable prices of €2.08/kg.

In France/Brittany , prices have remained unchanged at €2.03/kg . At 359,435 pigs, the slaughter figures are again close to the average with a carcass weight of 96.41 kg.

In Italy, prices were reduced by -5.3 ct/kg in week 17, 2024. Supply is too high compared to demand.

In Spain, prices will remain unchanged at a comparable €2.35/kg in week 17, 2024. Although the live supply is low in relation to slaughter capacity, meat sales are difficult.

In the USA/IOWA , producer prices have risen considerably to the current €1.87/kg. Slaughter numbers have increased again. Cut prices have been increased for the most part. Cold store stocks are limited. Market prices of €2.15/kg are being traded for the summer barbecue season, but the fall/winter dates are back to an average of €1.75/kg.

Brazil: Producer prices have been reduced to an average of €1.47/kg. With a sharp drop in exports to China, alternative sales to other importing countries are becoming increasingly critical. Demand from the processing sector remains low. Nevertheless, production and exports are expected to increase further in 2024.

China: Prices have stabilized further at €2.63/kg. The usual seasonal weakness in demand remains for the time being. Prices for the month of May 2024 are trading at €2.55/kg on the Dalian exchange. The most recently calculated sow herd is 39.9 million tons, which is still higher than the political target of 39 million. Pork imports continue to fall.

Conclusion: In most EU countries, with the exception of Italy, pig prices have remained at the price level reached. The persistently reduced live supply, low cold store stocks, the start of stockpiling for the barbecue season and stable demand are ensuring firm pig prices. Expectations are focused on the weather-related increase in demand for barbecues in the coming month of May.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

As the barbecue season draws ever closer, the question arises as to the extent to which the necessary cold store stocks will be sufficient to meet the usual increase in demand during the summer phase with regularly lower slaughter volumes. The most recent V price quotation dispenses with a price range that had been set lower in the two previous weeks. Although several slaughter days are expected to be canceled in the next two weeks, in view of the underutilized slaughter capacities due to the reduced live supply, the price-reducing effect is relatively low compared to previous years.

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