31.
07.24
Pig prices still stable, but the lower end of the range is falling

Hogs News, 31st / Jul / 2024

Bullish
  • Persistently low live supply
Bearish
  • Weak holiday-related demand

Germany:V-price2.10 €/kg (range 2.05 - 2.10 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter numbers have decreased again to around 698,000 pigs (previous week 698,264), slaughter weights have fallen slightly to 97.1 kg .

The pre-registrations for the current week amount to 254,200 (previous week 256,300)

The ISN auction on Tue, 30.07.2024 brought an average of 2.15 €/kg (2.15 - 2.155 €/kg)

The V-price for the period from 01.08.2024 to 07.08.2024 has been set at 2.10 €/kg in a range of 2.05 - 2.10 €/kg.

Slaughter pig market in Germany

ASF: As of July 30, 2024, 5,861 ASF-infected wild boars have been detected in Brandenburg, Saxony and Mecklenburg. Around Groß-Gerau (northwest of Darmstadt in Hesse), 70 ASF-infected wild boars have been found in the meantime. The new cases cross the state border into Rhineland-Palatinate. ASF was detected on 5 farms with domestic pigs in herds of 1,100, 170, 17 and most recently 1,800 animals and the herds were culled.

Market and price developments in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , prices calculated on a comparable basis remained unchanged at €1.68/kg in CW 31, 2024.

In Belgium, the comparably calculated prices of € 2.01/kg remained unchanged in CW 31, 2024.

In the Netherlands , the quotes will remain unchanged in week 31 of 2024 with comparably calculated prices of € 2.03/kg.

In France/Brittany , prices have been set back by -1 ct/kg at €2.12/kg . Slaughter numbers rose to 339,088; slaughter weights also increased to 95.80 kg.

In Italy, prices rose by a further +3 ct/kg in week 31, 2024. Rising numbers of holidaymakers increase demand for meat.

In Spain, the unchanged price of € 2.41/kg in week 31 of 2024 reflects the short supply of live animals. The vacation season ensures increased domestic sales, while the high price level slows down exports with a self-sufficiency rate of around 200%.

In the USA/IOWA , producer prices have stabilized at € 1.71/kg. Slaughter figures have returned to the usual seasonal level. Stocks in cold stores remain low. Cut prices have risen again. Market prices are quoted at current levels for the summer barbecue season. However, forward prices for Dec. 24 are only averaging €1.59/kg.

Brazil: Producer prices have stabilized at an average of €1.67/kg. A smaller live supply, rising domestic demand and brisk export business have contributed to this. Restrictions due to flooding are playing an increasingly minor role.

China: Prices have risen to €3.17/kg. Reduced supply continues to meet with seasonally stable demand. The month of Nov-2024 is being traded on the Dalian exchange at prices of around €3.06/kg. Prices are expected to fall to just under €3/kg in Jan-2025.

Conclusion: Despite limited demand during the holiday/vacation period, prices are still stable at a reduced level, but the lower end of the range is already falling. Live supply is not higher due to the summer temperatures.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Although average prices remain stable at € 2.10/kg, the lower range slips to € 2.05/kg. With little change in live supply, weak holiday-related demand is the main reason for the crumbling price level.

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