04.
09.24
Prices remain unchanged

Hogs News, 4th / Sep / 2024

Bullish
  • Persistently low live supply
  • no overhangs
  • Some improvement in demand
Bearish
  • Cautious consumer behavior
  • Low to declining prices in competitor countries

Germany:V-price2.00 €/kg (range 2.00 - 2.05 €/kg)

The weekly slaughter figures have increased to around 730,000 pigs (previous week: 727,586) and slaughter weights have risen to 97.5 kg .

Pre-registrations for the current week amount to 263,000 (previous week 261,300)

The ISN auction on Tue, 03.09.2024 brought 2.06 €/kg (2.06- 2.065 €/kg)

The V-price for the period from 05.09.2024 to 12.09.2024 has been set at 2.00 €/kg in a range of 2.00 - 2.05 €/kg.

German slaughter pig market

ASF: As of September 3, 2024, 6,013 ASF-infected wild boars have been detected in Brandenburg, Saxony, Mecklenburg, Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate. In the meantime, 128 ASF-infected wild boars have been found in Hesse and Rhineland-Palatinate. ASF was detected in 9 farms with domestic pigs and the herds were culled.

Market and price developments in selected competitor countries:

In Denmark , the comparably calculated prices will remain unchanged at €1.58/kg in CW 36, 2024.

In Belgium, the comparably calculated prices of € 1.93/kg will also remain unchanged in CW 36, 2024.

In the Netherlands , prices will remain constant in week 36 of 2024 at comparable prices of €1.95/kg.

In France/Brittany , the comparable prices are set back by a further -2 ct/kg at €2.06/kg . Slaughter numbers have risen again to 353,818 and slaughter weights to 96.3 kg. Although the school vacations have come to an end, sales have not yet picked up.

In Italy, prices rose by a further +4 ct/kg in week 36 of 2024. This means that Italian pig prices have risen by a total of 27 ct/kg in 8 weeks. This continues to be due to the tight market supply during the vacation season and is exacerbated by high ASF outbreaks north of Genoa in northern Italy.

In Spain, the price will be reduced by a further -3 ct/kg to €2. 32/kg in week 36 of 2024. Demand is declining during the vacation season and the high price level is slowing down exports

In the USA/IOWA , producer prices were set -5 ct/kg lower at €1.54/kg. The weaker dollar exchange rate contributed to this somewhat. Slaughter numbers remain high. Cold store stocks rose only slightly, but remained below the previous year. Cuts have stabilized at a reduced level. Forward prices for Dec. 24 average € 1.57/kg.

Brazil: Producer prices have remained at the equivalent of €1.84/kg. The live supply is only just sufficient to meet the stable domestic demand and the brisk export business (+35 % in July/Aug.) with a focus on the Philippines.

China: Prices have fallen by -4 ct/kg to €3.50/kg. The limited supply from home and abroad is meeting with a seasonal increase in demand. The month of Nov-2024 is being traded on the Dalian exchange at prices of around €3.11/kg. In March 2025, however, prices of only €2.55/kg are quoted. China now imports almost twice as much beef as pork.

Conclusion: Price reductions in neighboring EU member states (with the exception of Italy) have not shaken the stable price trend in Germany. The hope remains that demand will increase somewhat with the end of the holiday/vacation period and price pressure will ease.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The firm price trend is initially the result of the comparatively low live supply on the one hand and a still subdued demand trend on the consumption side. Prices in neighboring countries, some of which are still falling, do not allow for any price leeway in Germany. Expectations of a price improvement in the post-holiday phase have become very modest.

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