Beef prices in leading exporting countries on the global market have been falling for almost a year now and have also had a knock-on effect on the European market with sharp price reductions since the start of the year. The rest of 2013 is likely to develop into a consolidation phase at a reduced price level with the hope of a slight recovery towards the end of the year.
Global beef production and consumption have tended to decline over the last 10 years, while poultry and pork have seen considerable growth rates in some cases. In the last 4 years, several periods of drought in important production areas and high feed costs have hindered and prevented the tentative rebuilding of beef cattle stocks. In many parts of the world, cash crop production is replacing less competitive forage production. There are no signs of a serious change in this trend worldwide in the foreseeable future.
Market structures have shifted compared to previous decades. India has risen to become the world's largest exporter, dominating the market in the Islamic beef import regions and displacing European and South American supplies. The oceanic countries of Australia and New Zealand can only just maintain their production, while exports are increasingly shifting from the USA to new East Asian markets with a focus on China. Although the USA remains the largest producer, ahead of Brazil, it is becoming a net importer with high imports of processed goods of South American origin and almost equally strong exports of quality meat to Japan, Canada and soon Mexico.
The EU-27 is alternating between net importer and net exporter, with sales opportunities in the Middle East, North Africa and Russia becoming weaker due to new competition from India. After a slight decline in EU domestic production in 2013, beef production is expected to increase again in the following year. Against the backdrop of the impending end of quotas, cow herds will play a key role in this. There will be little change on the consumption side. Beef surpluses as in previous decades of a minimum price policy are not in sight.
