Rabobank sees big export opportunities for the EU to China
The unexpectedly strong drop of Chinese Schweinebestandes should be in the order of 100 million pigs or sows 10 million in 2015.
Pigmeat production in China is estimated as a result less to 3.7 million tonnes or - 6.5% in 2015 . That would be the largest reduction in 40 years.
As compensation, Rabobank assumed a increase in imports by rd. 600,000 t on a total of 1.9 million t. pork imports for the year 2015.
Repercussions for the global pork market are seen also for the year 2016, because a rapid rebuilding of Chinese stocks of sows is not possible.
Primary supplier countries to the EU, United States and Canada be because they bring the best output conditions. The required amounts can be purchased from inherent available and affordable in these countries. The import volume will become effective at the latest in the 2nd half of 2015, thinks the market expert of Rabobank.
But if it connects hopes on a basic level increase the EU pig prices , is likely to be disappointed. The average export earnings of the EU involving Chinese pork imports are for years of a magnitude to the 1.30 to €1.50 per kg. It will not fundamentally change foreseeable, because generally sent less valuable pieces on the long journey to China. Local pork prices are barely significant to improve export earnings at listed level. To achieve this, the value-bearing fresh meat cuts in large quantities must be discontinued. Long transport distances but mutually to China and fresh meat sales.
Also the question arises, to what extent in the face of the current economic difficulties and the reduced purchasing power of the Chinese currency , import demand has been damaged. China's consumers are heaped on back probably pork consumption something.
